BirdAnalyst
Species · Vermont · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

American Goldfinch Population Trend in Vermont

All statesGeneralists

American Goldfinch in Vermont has declined: down 44% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-44%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
26Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable American Goldfinch Trends in VermontNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for American Goldfinch in Vermont. See the full index history below.

American Goldfinch Population Forecast in Vermont

If the recent trend holds, American Goldfinch in Vermont is projected to fall about 27% by 2029 — from 14 in 2024 to a central estimate of 9.9 (95% range 2.4–17). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±16%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-27%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
9.9Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
2.4–1795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±16%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, American Goldfinch in Vermont is projected to fall about 27% by 2029 — from 14 in 2024 to a central estimate of 9.9 (95% range 2.4–17). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±16%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025103.018
2026102.918
2027102.718
2028102.618
20299.92.417

American Goldfinch Survey Routes in Vermont

Routes recording American Goldfinch in Vermont.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
East Haven2820241966
S Wallingfrd2720221966
Landgrove2520241966
W Rutland2420241966
Hinesburg2219941966
Stowe2120241988
East Calais1920241966
St Johnsbury1820241970
Hardwick1720241966
Newbury 21520232005
Bristol1520181995
Middlesex1420241968
Colchester1320241986
Marlboro1220241966
Shaftsbury1220241966
Post Mills1120241966
Fletcher920241968
Waterville919801967
Stratton820241966
S Reading620231966
Greensboro620241967
Grand Isle420241967
North Pownal320241966
Northfld Fls320211980
Gaysville220211966

American Goldfinch Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawaregeorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.