BirdAnalyst
Species · Vermont · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

American Goldfinch Population Trend in Vermont

All statesForest birds

American Goldfinch in Vermont has declined: down 40% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-40%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
26Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable American Goldfinch Trends in VermontNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for American Goldfinch in Vermont. See the full index history below.

American Goldfinch Population Forecast in Vermont

If the recent trend holds, American Goldfinch in Vermont is projected to fall about 39% by 2030 — from 17 in 2025 to a central estimate of 10 (95% range 2.7–18). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±23.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-39%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
10Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
2.7–1895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±23.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, American Goldfinch in Vermont is projected to fall about 39% by 2030 — from 17 in 2025 to a central estimate of 10 (95% range 2.7–18). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±23.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026113.218
2027113.118
2028112.918
2029102.818
2030102.718

American Goldfinch Survey Routes in Vermont

Routes recording American Goldfinch in Vermont.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
North Pownal6320251966
Fletcher4320251968
East Haven3220251966
S Wallingfrd2720221966
W Rutland2220251966
Hinesburg2219941966
Stowe2120241988
Landgrove1820251966
Hardwick1720241966
East Calais1620251966
Newbury 21520232005
Bristol1520251995
Northfld Fls1420251980
Colchester1320251986
Marlboro1020251966
St Johnsbury1020251970
Middlesex1020251968
Shaftsbury920251966
Greensboro920251967
Waterville919801967
Stratton820251966
S Reading620231966
Gaysville620251966
Grand Isle320251967
Newbury220041986

American Goldfinch Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawaregeorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.