BirdAnalyst
Species · Pennsylvania · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

American Goldfinch Population Trend in Pennsylvania

All statesForest birds

American Goldfinch in Pennsylvania has declined: down 25% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-25%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
137Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable American Goldfinch Trends in PennsylvaniaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for American Goldfinch in Pennsylvania. See the full index history below.

American Goldfinch Population Forecast in Pennsylvania

If the recent trend holds, American Goldfinch in Pennsylvania is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 12 (95% range 7.3–17). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±8.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-7%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
12Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
7.3–1795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±8.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, American Goldfinch in Pennsylvania is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 12 (95% range 7.3–17). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±8.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026127.217
2027127.217
2028127.217
2029127.217
2030127.317

American Goldfinch Survey Routes in Pennsylvania

Routes recording American Goldfinch in Pennsylvania.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Scheafferstn4420011966
Ferris Crnrs3720251966
Drehersville3419991966
Betula3320221973
Jacobus3320251986
Waterstreet3220241968
Sugar Grove3120251980
Martinsburg3020251970
Brunnerville 22920252010
Bow Bridge2620251969
Plesant Grov2520241966
West Grove2519961966
Ellenton2520251982
Starlight 22520252000
Austinville2420251966
Beaver2420251969
Ryde2320051968
Stoneybreak2320251992
Mars2220251989
Eldred2120221973
Geeseytown2120251987
Harrisville2120251995
Ridgway2020181966
Rasselas2020221969
Virginia2020251969

American Goldfinch Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawaregeorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonrhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.