BirdAnalyst
Species · Pennsylvania · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

American Goldfinch Population Trend in Pennsylvania

All statesGeneralists

American Goldfinch in Pennsylvania has edged down: down 25% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-25%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
137Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable American Goldfinch Trends in PennsylvaniaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for American Goldfinch in Pennsylvania. See the full index history below.

American Goldfinch Population Forecast in Pennsylvania

If the recent trend holds, American Goldfinch in Pennsylvania is projected to fall about 11% by 2029 — from 14 in 2024 to a central estimate of 12 (95% range 7.1–17). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±9.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-11%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
12Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
7.1–1795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±9.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, American Goldfinch in Pennsylvania is projected to fall about 11% by 2029 — from 14 in 2024 to a central estimate of 12 (95% range 7.1–17). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±9.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025127.117
2026127.117
2027127.117
2028127.117
2029127.117

American Goldfinch Survey Routes in Pennsylvania

Routes recording American Goldfinch in Pennsylvania.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Scheafferstn4420011966
Brunnerville 24220242010
Teepleville3520241966
Sugar Grove3520241980
Drehersville3419991966
Betula3320221973
Waterstreet3220241968
Geeseytown3120241987
Drehersville 23020242000
Ferris Crnrs2720241966
Martinsburg2720241970
Stoneybreak2720241992
Arnot2520241969
Plesant Grov2520241966
West Grove2519961966
Ryde2320051968
Jacobus2320241986
N Pine Grove2220241969
Beaver2220241969
Roulette 22220242022
Eldred2120221973
Ridgway2020181966
Rasselas2020221969
Canadensis1920241969
Labott1919831966

American Goldfinch Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawaregeorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonrhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.