BirdAnalyst
Species · Maryland · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

American Goldfinch Population Trend in Maryland

All statesForest birds

American Goldfinch in Maryland has risen sharply: up 69% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+69%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
76Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable American Goldfinch Trends in MarylandNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

American Goldfinch has risen sharply in Maryland: up 69% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

American Goldfinch Population Forecast in Maryland

If the recent trend holds, American Goldfinch in Maryland is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 15 (95% range 12–19). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±11.7%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-3%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
15Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
12–1995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±11.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, American Goldfinch in Maryland is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 15 (95% range 12–19). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±11.7%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026151119
2027151119
2028151119
2029151119
2030151219

American Goldfinch Survey Routes in Maryland

Routes recording American Goldfinch in Maryland.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Ijamsville4120251986
Jennings3720251995
Olney3620251966
Finzel3620251995
Emmitsburg3220251966
Eklo3220181966
Island Creek3220251991
Pomonkey3120251966
Williamsport3020251966
Smithsburg2720141966
Madison2720251966
Earlton2620242014
La Plata2320091966
Furnace Town2220252015
Honga2020251966
Madonna2020222009
Beltsville1920121966
Wheaton1820251990
Norwood1720121966
Walnut1720241999
Forest Grove1620232011
Davidsnville1520251982
Wolfsville1420251966
Pleasant Val1420251966
Jessup1420252013

American Goldfinch Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawaregeorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.