BirdAnalyst
Species · Missouri · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

American Goldfinch Population Trend in Missouri

All statesGeneralists

American Goldfinch in Missouri has held roughly steady: up 6% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+6%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
93Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable American Goldfinch Trends in MissouriNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for American Goldfinch in Missouri. See the full index history below.

American Goldfinch Population Forecast in Missouri

If the recent trend holds, American Goldfinch in Missouri is projected to rise about 27% by 2029 — from 6.9 in 2024 to a central estimate of 8.8 (95% range 6.1–11). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±26%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+27%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
8.8Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
6.1–1195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±26%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, American Goldfinch in Missouri is projected to rise about 27% by 2029 — from 6.9 in 2024 to a central estimate of 8.8 (95% range 6.1–11). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±26%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20258.55.911
20268.65.911
20278.66.011
20288.76.111
20298.86.111

American Goldfinch Survey Routes in Missouri

Routes recording American Goldfinch in Missouri.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Syracuse3820241969
Lucerne3420212016
Whitewater2920241996
Graydon2120241967
Madison2020241971
Huntsville1820241967
Palace1720232013
Deventer1620231968
Kirksville1620241994
Frazier1420241967
Eugene1320242013
Cascade1220241967
Rueter 21220242023
Cassville1120241967
Trenton1120241967
Bolckow1119921967
Osage Beach1120241997
Norborne1120232006
New Hampton1120242014
Queen City1120222017
West Plains1120242014
Kingsville1020241992
Diamond1020242015
Kearney920241994
New Point920241994

American Goldfinch Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawaregeorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.