BirdAnalyst
Species · Washington · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

American Goldfinch Population Trend in Washington

All statesGeneralists

American Goldfinch in Washington has declined: down 46% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-46%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
99Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable American Goldfinch Trends in WashingtonNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for American Goldfinch in Washington. See the full index history below.

American Goldfinch Population Forecast in Washington

If the recent trend holds, American Goldfinch in Washington is projected to fall about 11% by 2029 — from 6.4 in 2024 to a central estimate of 5.7 (95% range 2.0–9.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±16.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-11%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
5.7Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
2.0–9.595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±16.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, American Goldfinch in Washington is projected to fall about 11% by 2029 — from 6.4 in 2024 to a central estimate of 5.7 (95% range 2.0–9.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±16.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20256.12.49.8
20266.02.39.7
20275.92.29.6
20285.82.19.6
20295.72.09.5

American Goldfinch Survey Routes in Washington

Routes recording American Goldfinch in Washington.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Warm Beach6020171968
South Elma3820241975
Port Angeles3720241970
Raymond2420211993
Mukilteo2320241993
Warm Beach 22320242018
Mendota2219881977
Twisp2020241969
Snowden1720241972
Potholes1720231996
Carnation1720241988
Raymond 21720242022
Reardan1620241968
Bay View1620171993
Wilbur1520241985
Kendall1320241981
Deception1320181992
Brewster1220181977
Nighthawk1220241992
Lake Chelan1220241988
Scootney Reservoir1220242009
Everett1020241975
Rainier1020191993
Mendota 21020001989
Vashon Is.1020241995

American Goldfinch Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawaregeorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.