BirdAnalyst
Species · Virginia · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Tufted Titmouse Population Trend in Virginia

All statesForest birds

Tufted Titmouse in Virginia has surged: up 86% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+86%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
88Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Tufted Titmouse Trends in VirginiaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Tufted Titmouse has surged in Virginia: up 86% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Tufted Titmouse Population Forecast in Virginia

If the recent trend holds, Tufted Titmouse in Virginia is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 19 (95% range 16–23). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±10.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+3%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
19Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
16–2395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±10.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Tufted Titmouse in Virginia is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 19 (95% range 16–23). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±10.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026191523
2027191523
2028191523
2029191623
2030191623

Tufted Titmouse Survey Routes in Virginia

Routes recording Tufted Titmouse in Virginia.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Nat Tunnel5520251981
White Stone3820251966
Brodnax3120251973
Carters Brdg 23120252015
Hebron 23120252023
Walkers3020231992
Surry2920251977
Big Island2820251968
Concord2820241967
Hall2820251967
Partlow2720151977
Fincastle2720251966
Amherst2720251967
Covesville2720251967
Gloucester2720251992
Colonial Pky2719981992
Brandon2720251992
Irisburg2620251976
Ringgold2620251976
Port Royal2520251977
Tryme2420251975
Newsoms2420241967
Newville2420241988
David2320131968
Glenwood2320231992

Tufted Titmouse Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansasconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourinebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinatennesseetexasvermontwest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.