BirdAnalyst
Species · New Jersey · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Tufted Titmouse Population Trend in New Jersey

All statesForest birds

Tufted Titmouse in New Jersey has surged: up 114% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+114%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
41Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Tufted Titmouse Trends in New JerseyNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Tufted Titmouse has surged in New Jersey: up 114% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Tufted Titmouse Population Forecast in New Jersey

If the recent trend holds, Tufted Titmouse in New Jersey is projected to rise about 26% by 2029 — from 13 in 2024 to a central estimate of 16 (95% range 11–20). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±50.8%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+26%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
16Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
11–2095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±50.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Tufted Titmouse in New Jersey is projected to rise about 26% by 2029 — from 13 in 2024 to a central estimate of 16 (95% range 11–20). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±50.8%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025151020
2026151120
2027151120
2028161120
2029161120

Tufted Titmouse Survey Routes in New Jersey

Routes recording Tufted Titmouse in New Jersey.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Kemah Lake6120241966
Dover3620231977
Cape May Ch3420131992
High Point2920241977
Pomona2720241978
Ramseysburg2220241995
Holmansville2120091969
Midvale2120221967
Del Haven2019911991
Croton2020071970
Winslow2020241989
Estell Manor1620222021
Pedricktown1520121991
Mt Misery1419891976
Bennett Mill1320001966
Friendship1320241977
Sandbrook1120241969
New Bedford1120241969
Gillette1120241988
Bloomsbury920241969
Croton 2920242008
Woodbury Hgt820241967
Toms River820241966
Hope819941970
Albion620221966

Tufted Titmouse Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansasconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourinebraskanew-hampshirenew-yorknorth-carolinaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.