BirdAnalyst
Species · Vermont · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Tufted Titmouse Population Trend in Vermont

All statesForest birds

Tufted Titmouse in Vermont has surged: up 48× on the route-weighted index since 1986.

48×Since 1986TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
24Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
40YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Tufted Titmouse Trends in VermontNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Tufted Titmouse has surged in Vermont: up 48× on the route-weighted index since 1986.

Tufted Titmouse Population Forecast in Vermont

If the recent trend holds, Tufted Titmouse in Vermont is projected to fall about 21% by 2029 — from 7.0 in 2024 to a central estimate of 5.5 (95% range 4.0–7.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±26%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-21%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
5.5Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
4.0–7.095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±26%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Tufted Titmouse in Vermont is projected to fall about 21% by 2029 — from 7.0 in 2024 to a central estimate of 5.5 (95% range 4.0–7.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±26%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19772029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20255.03.56.5
20265.13.66.6
20275.33.76.8
20285.43.96.9
20295.54.07.0

Tufted Titmouse Survey Routes in Vermont

Routes recording Tufted Titmouse in Vermont.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
North Pownal2920241985
Post Mills2120241990
Marlboro1920241988
Shaftsbury1420241986
S Wallingfrd920221991
W Rutland720241987
S Reading620241977
Gaysville620211996
Colchester620241997
Fletcher520242008
Stratton420242015
Landgrove420242005
Newbury 2420232022
Stowe420241998
Bristol420181995
East Haven320242019
St Johnsbury220241993
Middlesex220242006
Hinesburg219941994
Northfld Fls120172011
East Calais120182018
Hardwick120052005
Greensboro120221997
Grand Isle119971997

Tufted Titmouse Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansasconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourinebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinatennesseetexasvirginiawest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.