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Species · Arkansas · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Tufted Titmouse Population Trend in Arkansas

All statesForest birds

Tufted Titmouse in Arkansas has surged: up 82% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+82%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
62Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Tufted Titmouse Trends in ArkansasNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Tufted Titmouse has surged in Arkansas: up 82% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Tufted Titmouse Population Forecast in Arkansas

If the recent trend holds, Tufted Titmouse in Arkansas is projected to rise about 24% by 2029 — from 17 in 2024 to a central estimate of 21 (95% range 16–26). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±12.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+24%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
21Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
16–2695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±12.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Tufted Titmouse in Arkansas is projected to rise about 24% by 2029 — from 17 in 2024 to a central estimate of 21 (95% range 16–26). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±12.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025201525
2026201525
2027201525
2028211626
2029211626

Tufted Titmouse Survey Routes in Arkansas

Routes recording Tufted Titmouse in Arkansas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Crowley'S Ridge4320242011
Saffell4120191967
Zion3820241967
Ravenden Springs3620152010
Russell3420212010
Nance3320241992
Blakely3219991968
Fulton2920241967
Hatfield 22920242017
Poyen 22720242008
South Bend2620231969
Rudy2620242011
Hope2420241967
Hughes2420231967
Stark2420241967
Marshall2420212011
Crows2319911967
Springhill2320222010
Old Milo2220241967
Farwell2220182010
Yellville2220222010
Compton2120221967
Locust Bayou1920231967
Sims1920242010
Rupert1820241967

Tufted Titmouse Population Trend in Other States

alabamaconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourinebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.