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Species · Arkansas · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Tufted Titmouse Population Trend in Arkansas

All statesForest birds

Tufted Titmouse in Arkansas has surged: up 95% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+95%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
62Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Tufted Titmouse Trends in ArkansasNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Tufted Titmouse has surged in Arkansas: up 95% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Tufted Titmouse Population Forecast in Arkansas

If the recent trend holds, Tufted Titmouse in Arkansas is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 21 (95% range 16–26). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±12%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+1%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
21Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
16–2695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±12%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Tufted Titmouse in Arkansas is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 21 (95% range 16–26). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±12%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026201525
2027201525
2028211626
2029211626
2030211626

Tufted Titmouse Survey Routes in Arkansas

Routes recording Tufted Titmouse in Arkansas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Zion4220251967
Saffell4120191967
Ravenden Springs3620152010
Crowley'S Ridge3520252011
Russell3420212010
Stark3320251967
Blakely3219991968
Fulton3220251967
Nance3220251992
South Bend3120251969
Centerton3120252010
Rudy3120252011
Hope2720251967
Old Milo2520251967
Stephens2520252010
Hatfield 22520252017
Poyen 22520252008
Marshall2420212011
Crows2319911967
Springhill2320222010
Farwell2220182010
Yellville2220252010
Compton2120221967
Magazine Mtn2120251993
Locust Bayou1920231967

Tufted Titmouse Population Trend in Other States

alabamaconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourinebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.