BirdAnalyst
Species · Michigan · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Tufted Titmouse Population Trend in Michigan

All statesForest birds

Tufted Titmouse in Michigan has surged: up 314% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+314%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
71Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Tufted Titmouse Trends in MichiganNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Tufted Titmouse has surged in Michigan: up 314% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Tufted Titmouse Population Forecast in Michigan

If the recent trend holds, Tufted Titmouse in Michigan is projected to rise about 15% by 2029 — from 4.9 in 2024 to a central estimate of 5.7 (95% range 3.5–7.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±20.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+15%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
5.7Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
3.5–7.995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±20.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Tufted Titmouse in Michigan is projected to rise about 15% by 2029 — from 4.9 in 2024 to a central estimate of 5.7 (95% range 3.5–7.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±20.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20255.43.27.6
20265.53.37.7
20275.53.47.7
20285.63.47.8
20295.73.57.9

Tufted Titmouse Survey Routes in Michigan

Routes recording Tufted Titmouse in Michigan.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Cohoctah3520242021
Howardsville2820241969
Big Blue Lk2620241979
Galesburg1520241966
Barry S.G.A.1420121995
Belding1120031983
Monterey1120241978
Hungerford1020241991
Barry S.G.A. 21020192013
Mottville1020241967
Lapeer1020242000
Rochester1020241993
Almena920151993
Nashville920241968
Prattville920211967
Belding 2820242004
Bravo820231974
Remus820241975
Pettysville819791969
Bear Lake720241991
Lawrence720241970
Harrietta620241998
Chippewa Lk.620241994
New Buffalo620141992
Allegan Wma620191993

Tufted Titmouse Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansasconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsminnesotamississippimissourinebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.