BirdAnalyst
Guild · Montana · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Forest Birds In Montana

All statesMontana

80 species in this guild. As a group they are -3%Guild trendA mean-index aggregate across the species in this group — the structural direction of the guild, with individual-species noise smoothed out.Full methodology → since 1970.

Guild SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for forest birds in Montana. See the full index history below.

Forest Birds In Montana Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Forest birds in Montana is projected to rise about 14% by 2030 — from 1.6 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.8 (95% range 1.5–2.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±14.8%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+14%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.8Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.5–2.195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±14.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Forest birds in Montana is projected to rise about 14% by 2030 — from 1.6 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.8 (95% range 1.5–2.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±14.8%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20261.81.52.1
20271.81.52.1
20281.81.52.1
20291.81.52.1
20301.81.52.1

Member Species In Montana

Forest birds species in Montana.
TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
Evening GrosbeakFringillidae-95%
Pinyon JayCorvidae-90%
Steller's JayCorvidae-83%
Pygmy NuthatchSittidae-78%
Black-billed CuckooCuculidae-74%
White-breasted NuthatchSittidae-72%
Plumbeous VireoVireonidae-72%
Townsend's SolitaireTurdidae-69%
VeeryTurdidae-67%
American Three-toed WoodpeckerPicidae-66%
Black-backed WoodpeckerPicidae-63%
Williamson's SapsuckerPicidae-63%
Canada JayCorvidae-59%
Downy WoodpeckerPicidae-57%
Black-chinned HummingbirdTrochilidae-56%
Red-eyed VireoVireonidae-50%
White-winged CrossbillFringillidae-46%
Broad-tailed HummingbirdTrochilidae-34%
Song SparrowPasserellidae-34%
Pine GrosbeakFringillidae-34%
Western BluebirdTurdidae-33%
Brown CreeperCerthiidae-26%
Yellow-breasted ChatIcteriidae-23%
Lewis's WoodpeckerPicidae-23%
Varied ThrushTurdidae-21%
Rufous HummingbirdTrochilidae-20%
Pine SiskinFringillidae-20%
Cassin's VireoVireonidae-19%
Wilson's WarblerParulidae-18%
Green-tailed TowheePasserellidae-16%
Chestnut-backed ChickadeeParidae-15%
Common YellowthroatParulidae-6%
American RedstartParulidae+6%
Chipping SparrowPasserellidae+11%
Tennessee WarblerParulidae+12%
Rock WrenTroglodytidae+16%
American RobinTurdidae+19%
Red-headed WoodpeckerPicidae+20%
Brown ThrasherMimidae+24%
Blue JayCorvidae+24%
Calliope HummingbirdTrochilidae+25%
Baltimore OrioleIcteridae+29%
Gray CatbirdMimidae+31%
Cassin's FinchFringillidae+37%
Mountain BluebirdTurdidae+43%
Ruby-crowned KingletRegulidae+45%
American GoldfinchFringillidae+46%
Bullock's OrioleIcteridae+50%
Orange-crowned WarblerParulidae+55%
Black-capped ChickadeeParidae+61%
Yellow WarblerParulidae+79%
White-crowned SparrowPasserellidae+82%
MacGillivray's WarblerParulidae+95%
Mountain ChickadeeParidae+97%
Northern House WrenTroglodytidae+101%
Pileated WoodpeckerPicidae+110%
Lazuli BuntingCardinalidae+117%
Clark's NutcrackerCorvidae+118%
Warbling VireoVireonidae+119%
Marsh WrenTroglodytidae+141%
Swainson's ThrushTurdidae+142%
Townsend's WarblerParulidae+167%
Red CrossbillFringillidae+186%
Western TanagerCardinalidae+205%
Fox SparrowPasserellidae+217%
Spotted TowheePasserellidae+241%
OvenbirdParulidae+310%
Pacific WrenTroglodytidae+320%
Hairy WoodpeckerPicidae+350%
Black-headed GrosbeakCardinalidae+376%
Red-breasted NuthatchSittidae+415%
Field SparrowPasserellidae+420%
Nashville WarblerParulidae+448%
Cedar WaxwingBombycillidae+499%
Northern WaterthrushParulidae+502%
Red-naped SapsuckerPicidae+648%
Hermit ThrushTurdidae+738%
Golden-crowned KingletRegulidae+783%
Lincoln's SparrowPasserellidae+785%
Orchard OrioleIcteridae+834%

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.