BirdAnalyst
Guild · Montana · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Forest Birds In Montana

All statesMontana

45 species in this guild. As a group they are +15%Guild trendA mean-index aggregate across the species in this group — the structural direction of the guild, with individual-species noise smoothed out.Full methodology → since 1970.

Guild SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for forest birds in Montana. See the full index history below.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Forest birds in Montana is projected to rise about 16% by 2029 — from 1.9 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.2 (95% range 1.8–2.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±15.2%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+16%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.2Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.8–2.695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±15.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Forest birds in Montana is projected to rise about 16% by 2029 — from 1.9 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.2 (95% range 1.8–2.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±15.2%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20252.21.82.6
20262.21.82.6
20272.21.82.6
20282.21.82.6
20292.21.82.6

Member Species In Montana

Forest birds species in Montana.
TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
Pygmy NuthatchSittidae-78%
White-breasted NuthatchSittidae-74%
VeeryTurdidae-66%
Plumbeous VireoVireonidae-63%
Red-eyed VireoVireonidae-54%
Townsend's SolitaireTurdidae-53%
Black-backed WoodpeckerPicidae-52%
Williamson's SapsuckerPicidae-43%
Lewis's WoodpeckerPicidae-40%
American Three-toed WoodpeckerPicidae-37%
Downy WoodpeckerPicidae-37%
Western BluebirdTurdidae-32%
Red-headed WoodpeckerPicidae-32%
Wilson's WarblerParulidae-18%
Cassin's VireoVireonidae-6%
Common YellowthroatParulidae-5%
Varied ThrushTurdidae+12%
Tennessee WarblerParulidae+12%
Rock WrenTroglodytidae+15%
American RedstartParulidae+22%
Mountain BluebirdTurdidae+24%
American RobinTurdidae+26%
Brown CreeperCerthiidae+36%
Chestnut-backed ChickadeeParidae+39%
Ruby-crowned KingletRegulidae+51%
Orange-crowned WarblerParulidae+65%
Black-capped ChickadeeParidae+72%
Yellow WarblerParulidae+76%
Pileated WoodpeckerPicidae+96%
MacGillivray's WarblerParulidae+101%
Northern House WrenTroglodytidae+106%
Warbling VireoVireonidae+121%
Mountain ChickadeeParidae+130%
Swainson's ThrushTurdidae+163%
Marsh WrenTroglodytidae+181%
Townsend's WarblerParulidae+183%
OvenbirdParulidae+295%
Nashville WarblerParulidae+444%
Pacific WrenTroglodytidae+463%
Hairy WoodpeckerPicidae+467%
Red-naped SapsuckerPicidae+587%
Northern WaterthrushParulidae+592%
Red-breasted NuthatchSittidae+625%
Hermit ThrushTurdidae+804%
Golden-crowned KingletRegulidae11×

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.