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Species · Montana · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Townsend's Solitaire Population Trend in Montana

All statesForest birds

Townsend's Solitaire in Montana has fallen sharply: down 69% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-69%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
41Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Townsend's Solitaire Trends in MontanaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Townsend's Solitaire has fallen sharply in Montana: down 69% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Townsend's Solitaire Population Forecast in Montana

If the recent trend holds, Townsend's Solitaire in Montana is projected to rise about 307% by 2030 — from 0.17 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.69 (95% range 0.11–1.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±218.3%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+307%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.69Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.11–1.395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±218.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Townsend's Solitaire in Montana is projected to rise about 307% by 2030 — from 0.17 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.69 (95% range 0.11–1.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±218.3%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.670.091.2
20270.670.091.2
20280.680.101.3
20290.680.101.3
20300.690.111.3

Townsend's Solitaire Survey Routes in Montana

Routes recording Townsend's Solitaire in Montana.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Skalkho-Rye820221999
Cramer Creek520191995
Woodman420251968
Skalkaho419981992
Greenough320041995
Polson320221994
Arlee320251968
Jordan320102002
Greenoagh 2320112005
Painted Rock320221993
Logan Pass220221980
Victor220221993
Threemile Wa220251993
Clinton220251976
Maynard Coulee220242021
Brunzell Slough220222022
Wise River220221994
Noxon220232000
Libby Dam120241981
Kalispell120161973
Elevation Mt120251995
Pryor Mtn.120242000
St Regis120191977
Elliston120161970
Boulder119871987

Townsend's Solitaire Population Trend in Other States

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Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.