BirdAnalyst
Species · Montana · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Townsend's Solitaire Population Trend in Montana

All statesForest birds

Townsend's Solitaire in Montana has fallen sharply: down 53% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-53%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
41Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Townsend's Solitaire Trends in MontanaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Townsend's Solitaire has fallen sharply in Montana: down 53% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Townsend's Solitaire Population Forecast in Montana

If the recent trend holds, Townsend's Solitaire in Montana is projected to rise about 261% by 2029 — from 0.20 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.72 (95% range 0.16–1.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±150.5%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+261%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.72Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.16–1.395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±150.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Townsend's Solitaire in Montana is projected to rise about 261% by 2029 — from 0.20 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.72 (95% range 0.16–1.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±150.5%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.700.131.3
20260.700.141.3
20270.710.141.3
20280.720.151.3
20290.720.161.3

Townsend's Solitaire Survey Routes in Montana

Routes recording Townsend's Solitaire in Montana.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Skalkho-Rye820221999
Cramer Creek520191995
Skalkaho419981992
Greenough320041995
Polson320221994
Arlee320241968
Jordan320102002
Woodman320231968
Greenoagh 2320112005
Painted Rock320221993
Logan Pass220221980
Victor220221993
Threemile Wa220241993
Elevation Mt220241995
Clancy220232015
Maynard Coulee220242021
Brunzell Slough220222022
Wise River220221994
Noxon220232000
Libby Dam120241981
Kalispell120161973
Pryor Mtn.120242000
St Regis120191977
Clinton120241976
Elliston120161970

Townsend's Solitaire Population Trend in Other States

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Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.