BirdAnalyst
Species · Washington · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Townsend's Solitaire Population Trend in Washington

All statesForest birds

Townsend's Solitaire in Washington has risen sharply: up 60% on the route-weighted index since 1971.

+60%Since 1971TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
49Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
53YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Townsend's Solitaire Trends in WashingtonNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Townsend's Solitaire has risen sharply in Washington: up 60% on the route-weighted index since 1971.

Townsend's Solitaire Population Forecast in Washington

If the recent trend holds, Townsend's Solitaire in Washington is projected to rise about 65% by 2029 — from 0.28 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.47 (95% range 0.23–0.70). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±85.4%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+65%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.47Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.23–0.7095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±85.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Townsend's Solitaire in Washington is projected to rise about 65% by 2029 — from 0.28 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.47 (95% range 0.23–0.70). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±85.4%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.450.210.68
20260.450.210.69
20270.460.220.69
20280.460.220.70
20290.470.230.70

Townsend's Solitaire Survey Routes in Washington

Routes recording Townsend's Solitaire in Washington.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Omak Creek720241998
Keller320071968
E. Mt. Adams320232016
Cusick320241984
Turnbull Nwr220231995
Sullivan Lake 2220182000
Winthrop220221983
Leavenworth220181984
Wilbur220241986
Carlton220191993
Curlew220131999
Sullivan Lk219991999
Mt St Helens220082001
Deer Park220151994
Newhalem120191999
Twisp120221984
Cascade Riv120001988
Chewelah120211979
No Cascades120191988
L Pend O Nwr120221996
Ardenvoir119871972
Reardan120221968
Cougar119861986
Rimrock120231968
Asotin120242024

Townsend's Solitaire Population Trend in Other States

alaskaarizonacaliforniacoloradoidahomontananebraskanevadanew-mexicooregonsouth-dakotautahwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.