BirdAnalyst
Species · Oregon · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Townsend's Solitaire Population Trend in Oregon

All statesForest birds

Townsend's Solitaire in Oregon has surged: up 169% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+169%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
77Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Townsend's Solitaire Trends in OregonNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Townsend's Solitaire has surged in Oregon: up 169% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Townsend's Solitaire Population Forecast in Oregon

If the recent trend holds, Townsend's Solitaire in Oregon is projected to rise about 23% by 2029 — from 1.3 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.6 (95% range 1.1–2.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±14.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+23%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.6Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.1–2.195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±14.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Townsend's Solitaire in Oregon is projected to rise about 23% by 2029 — from 1.3 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.6 (95% range 1.1–2.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±14.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20251.50.982.1
20261.51.02.1
20271.61.02.1
20281.61.02.1
20291.61.12.1

Townsend's Solitaire Survey Routes in Oregon

Routes recording Townsend's Solitaire in Oregon.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Barnes Val2219871984
Silvies1820241994
Lakeview1220241996
Bly 21120242007
Paisley1020241973
Mount Vernon920241986
Silver Creek920241984
Donelly 2920242018
Sisters520242001
Desolation520071999
Dell Spring419901968
Summit Pr420141984
Lapham Res.420241992
Badger Creek420241992
Picture Flat420241993
Chinchalo420241993
Harlan 2420192015
Ochoco319821972
Elk Lake320241972
Bly319971973
Hells Canyon320221992
Cinderella320241993
Flora220221986
Deschutes219741974
Wedderburn220182018

Townsend's Solitaire Population Trend in Other States

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Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.