BirdAnalyst
Species · Alaska · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Townsend's Solitaire Population Trend in Alaska

All statesForest birds

Townsend's Solitaire in Alaska has increased: up 26% on the route-weighted index since 1985.

+26%Since 1985TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
25Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
37YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Townsend's Solitaire Trends in AlaskaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Townsend's Solitaire in Alaska. See the full index history below.

Townsend's Solitaire Population Forecast in Alaska

If the recent trend holds, Townsend's Solitaire in Alaska is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.13 (95% range 0.00–0.29). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±93.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+5%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.13Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.2995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±93.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Townsend's Solitaire in Alaska is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.13 (95% range 0.00–0.29). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±93.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19822029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.130.000.29
20260.130.000.29
20270.130.000.29
20280.130.000.29
20290.130.000.29

Townsend's Solitaire Survey Routes in Alaska

Routes recording Townsend's Solitaire in Alaska.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Donelly Dome520222022
Sheep Mtn420141985
Thorne Bay420121991
Hope320152004
Chistochina220242000
Mccarthy Rd2219891989
Coldfoot220222004
Kanuti Canyn220242000
Chena Hot Sp219851985
Cordova220061996
Petersville220142008
Chicken220241992
Eagle120241991
Kuskulana120182018
Toklat120041983
Craig119911991
Matanuska119821982
Moose Creek120212021
Mt. Fairplay120241994
Mud River119961996
Ft. Richrdsn120011996
Kenny Lake120192003
Dietrich Cmp120122004
Hatcher Pass120191995
Yakutat120061999

Townsend's Solitaire Population Trend in Other States

arizonacaliforniacoloradoidahomontananebraskanevadanew-mexicooregonsouth-dakotautahwashingtonwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.