BirdAnalyst
Species · California · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Townsend's Solitaire Population Trend in California

All statesForest birds

Townsend's Solitaire in California has edged up: up 11% on the route-weighted index since 1972.

+11%Since 1972TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
95Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
54YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Townsend's Solitaire Trends in CaliforniaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Townsend's Solitaire in California. See the full index history below.

Townsend's Solitaire Population Forecast in California

If the recent trend holds, Townsend's Solitaire in California is projected to rise about 472% by 2029 — from 0.15 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.86 (95% range 0.37–1.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±286.6%, with 0% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+472%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.86Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.37–1.495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±286.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Townsend's Solitaire in California is projected to rise about 472% by 2029 — from 0.15 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.86 (95% range 0.37–1.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±286.6%, with 0% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19702029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.820.331.3
20260.830.341.3
20270.840.351.3
20280.850.361.3
20290.860.371.4

Townsend's Solitaire Survey Routes in California

Routes recording Townsend's Solitaire in California.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Valyermo1020161970
Pilot Creek719961994
Crowder Flat720192002
Ship Mtn.620161994
French Gulch620072002
Angelus Oaks520122000
Little Truckee520231997
Butte Meadow420141972
Bartle420211980
Hackamore420102003
Chester420131997
Westville320231971
Greenhorn Mt320081971
Mccloud320211975
Chaos Crater320191999
Crestview320221997
Hough Springs320061999
Friday Ridge320241994
South Fork Mtn320222000
Carrville219701970
Cottage Spgs219751973
Martins Fy219871980
Shasta Lake220041984
Lumberyard220241981
Kelso Valley220122003

Townsend's Solitaire Population Trend in Other States

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Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.