BirdAnalyst
Species · New Mexico · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Townsend's Solitaire Population Trend in New Mexico

All statesForest birds

Townsend's Solitaire in New Mexico has surged: up 78% on the route-weighted index since 1973.

+78%Since 1973TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
24Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
49YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Townsend's Solitaire Trends in New MexicoNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Townsend's Solitaire has surged in New Mexico: up 78% on the route-weighted index since 1973.

Townsend's Solitaire Population Forecast in New Mexico

If the recent trend holds, Townsend's Solitaire in New Mexico is projected to rise about 93% by 2029 — from 0.09 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.17 (95% range 0.00–0.36). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±37.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+93%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.17Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.3695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±37.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Townsend's Solitaire in New Mexico is projected to rise about 93% by 2029 — from 0.09 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.17 (95% range 0.00–0.36). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±37.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.170.000.37
20260.170.000.37
20270.170.000.36
20280.170.000.36
20290.170.000.36

Townsend's Solitaire Survey Routes in New Mexico

Routes recording Townsend's Solitaire in New Mexico.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Bluewater Lake520191999
Mt. Taylor 2320242014
Vallecitos320231994
Farley219891987
Claunch 2220042002
Nageesi120041990
Cebolla120141977
Ojo Sarco120241968
Capulin119941994
Pecos119951995
Claunch119871980
Horse Mtn120192019
Carrizozo120082008
Dulce120172017
Angel Fire 2120102010
Cloudcroft120231979
Stinking Lk.119971997
Angel Fire120001993
Mcgaffey120212011
Mt. Taylor120121993
Gallinas120211993
Quemado119961995
Reserve120221993
Vicks Peak119961992

Townsend's Solitaire Population Trend in Other States

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Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.