BirdAnalyst
Species · Arizona · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Townsend's Solitaire Population Trend in Arizona

All statesForest birds

Townsend's Solitaire in Arizona has fallen sharply: down 67% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-67%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
17Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
46YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Townsend's Solitaire Trends in ArizonaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Townsend's Solitaire has fallen sharply in Arizona: down 67% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Townsend's Solitaire Population Forecast in Arizona

If the recent trend holds, Townsend's Solitaire in Arizona is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 0.07 (95% range 0.00–0.25). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±92.9%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.07Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.2595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±92.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Townsend's Solitaire in Arizona is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 0.07 (95% range 0.00–0.25). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±92.9%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.070.000.26
20270.070.000.26
20280.070.000.26
20290.070.000.26
20300.070.000.25

Townsend's Solitaire Survey Routes in Arizona

Routes recording Townsend's Solitaire in Arizona.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Hunt819921991
Tsaile320222018
Sawmill220141989
Mormon Lake219741968
Blue219911975
Maine220131997
Tonto Vill.120192019
House Rock119991994
Forest Lakes120241992
Pinetop120141995
Round Rock119721972
Portal120082008
Flagstaff120191988
Alpine120231998
Sprucedale120091992
Happy Jack120181997
Dry Park120252000

Townsend's Solitaire Population Trend in Other States

alaskacaliforniacoloradoidahomontananebraskanevadanew-mexicooregonsouth-dakotautahwashingtonwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.