BirdAnalyst
Species · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Townsend's Solitaire Population Analysis

TurdidaeForest birdsMyadestes townsendi

Townsend's Solitaire has surged: up 202% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+202%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
556RoutesSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57Years SurveyedYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

About the Townsend's Solitaire

The Townsend's Solitaire (Myadestes townsendi) is a North American member of the Thrushes (Turdidae). In this analysis it is grouped with the forest birds.

Size
6–11 in long (15–28 cm) — a medium songbird (typical for the family)
Habitat
Woodlands and forest edges, including wooded suburbs and parks.
Diet
Insects and spiders gleaned from foliage and bark, with seeds and berries in season.
Range
Recorded on 556 Breeding Bird Survey routes across 14 states, most concentrated in the Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau.
Family
Turdidae · Forest birds

Notable Townsend's Solitaire TrendsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Townsend's Solitaire. See the full index history below.

Townsend's Solitaire Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Townsend's Solitaire is projected to rise about 52% by 2030 — from 0.14 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.20 (95% range 0.13–0.28). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±71.5%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+52%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.20Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.13–0.2895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±71.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Townsend's Solitaire is projected to rise about 52% by 2030 — from 0.14 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.20 (95% range 0.13–0.28). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±71.5%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.200.120.27
20270.200.130.27
20280.200.130.27
20290.200.130.28
20300.200.130.28

Where the Townsend's Solitaire Is Detected

BBS routes recording Townsend's Solitaire, sized by most recent count.

Townsend's Solitaire Population Trend by State

Townsend's Solitaire population trend by state.
TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →Baseline yearThe first year of the smoothed window the trend is measured from. An earlier baseline means a longer record stands behind the number.Full methodology →Survey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
Alaska+26%198526
Arizona-67%197017
California+12%197297
Colorado+89%197083
Idaho-35%197635
Montana-69%197041
Nebraskainsufficient datan/a2
Nevada-93%19859
New Mexico-3%197324
Oregon+147%197078
South Dakota13×197214
Utah-73%197539
Washington+47%197149
Wyoming-32%197542

Townsend's Solitaire Population Trend by Region

Bird Conservation Regions are the ecological unit for trends.

Townsend's Solitaire population trend by Bird Conservation Region.
TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →Baseline yearThe first year of the smoothed window the trend is measured from. An earlier baseline means a longer record stands behind the number.Full methodology →Survey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
BCR 4+14%198519
Northern Pacific Rainforest+1%197262
Great Basin-14%197095
Northern Rockies-22%1970131
Sierra Nevada-16%197235
Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau+235%1970144
Badlands and Prairies+502%197229
Coastal California-84%197220
Sierra Madre Occidental-83%197013

Townsend's Solitaire Conservation Status

Our route-weighted index shows it up about 202% since 1970.

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14. Trend is a route-weighted relative-abundance index, not an absolute population.