BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 16 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Townsend's Solitaire In Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau

All regionsSouthern Rockies / Colorado PlateauForest birds

Townsend's Solitaire in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau has surged: up 235% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+235%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
144Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Townsend's Solitaire has surged in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau: up 235% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Townsend's Solitaire In Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Townsend's Solitaire in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau is projected to rise about 36% by 2030 — from 0.49 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.66 (95% range 0.36–0.97). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±58%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+36%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.66Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.36–0.9795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±58%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Townsend's Solitaire in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau is projected to rise about 36% by 2030 — from 0.49 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.66 (95% range 0.36–0.97). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±58%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.640.330.94
20270.650.340.95
20280.650.340.96
20290.660.350.96
20300.660.360.97

Routes In Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau

Routes recording Townsend's Solitaire in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Piceance BasinCOLORADO112004
HuntARIZONA81992
Heeney 2COLORADO72025
Mount EvansCOLORADO62024
Bluewater LakeNEW-MEXICO52019
Buffalo ParkCOLORADO42025
Deadman Rd.COLORADO42025
ComoCOLORADO42025
Moon Lake 2UTAH42023
TsaileARIZONA32022
TarryallCOLORADO32025
CastletonCOLORADO32022
GuffeyCOLORADO32025
TincupCOLORADO32025
DinosaurCOLORADO32002
Weston PassCOLORADO31999
Gribbles PrkCOLORADO32025
Cochetopa PassCOLORADO32023
VallecitosNEW-MEXICO32023
Mt. Taylor 2NEW-MEXICO32024
FayetteUTAH32010
Beck 2UTAH32018
Fox ParkWYOMING32025
SawmillARIZONA22014
YampaCOLORADO22019

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.