BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 15 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Townsend's Solitaire In Sierra Nevada

All regionsSierra NevadaForest birds

Townsend's Solitaire in Sierra Nevada has edged down: down 16% on the route-weighted index since 1972.

-16%Since 1972TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
35Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
55YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Townsend's Solitaire in Sierra Nevada. See the full index history below.

Townsend's Solitaire In Sierra Nevada Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Townsend's Solitaire in Sierra Nevada is projected to rise about 30% by 2030 — from 1.4 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.8 (95% range 0.93–2.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±109.5%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+30%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.8Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.93–2.795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±109.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Townsend's Solitaire in Sierra Nevada is projected to rise about 30% by 2030 — from 1.4 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.8 (95% range 0.93–2.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±109.5%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19702030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20261.80.882.6
20271.80.892.6
20281.80.902.7
20291.80.912.7
20301.80.932.7

Routes In Sierra Nevada

Routes recording Townsend's Solitaire in Sierra Nevada.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
LumberyardCALIFORNIA52025
JohnsvilleCALIFORNIA42025
Butte MeadowCALIFORNIA42014
ChesterCALIFORNIA42013
WestvilleCALIFORNIA32025
Greenhorn MtCALIFORNIA32008
Chaos CraterCALIFORNIA32019
Little TruckeeCALIFORNIA32025
CrestviewCALIFORNIA32022
Cottage SpgsCALIFORNIA21975
WoodfordsCALIFORNIA22025
Hat CreekCALIFORNIA22018
Tahoe NfCALIFORNIA21994
Forest HillCALIFORNIA22025
Pollock PinesCALIFORNIA22025
PlacervilleCALIFORNIA22025
CoultervilleCALIFORNIA22016
Pine MountainCALIFORNIA22017
Last ChanceCALIFORNIA22019
Lassen ParkCALIFORNIA11989
Eagle LakeCALIFORNIA12024
DardanelleCALIFORNIA12019
Silver CityCALIFORNIA12011
Kings CanyonCALIFORNIA11988
Tuolumne GroveCALIFORNIA12024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.