BirdAnalyst
Species · South Dakota · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Townsend's Solitaire Population Trend in South Dakota

All statesForest birds

Townsend's Solitaire in South Dakota has surged: up 885% on the route-weighted index since 1972.

+885%Since 1972TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
14Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
50YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Townsend's Solitaire Trends in South DakotaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Townsend's Solitaire has surged in South Dakota: up 885% on the route-weighted index since 1972.

Townsend's Solitaire Population Forecast in South Dakota

If the recent trend holds, Townsend's Solitaire in South Dakota is projected to rise about 127% by 2029 — from 0.41 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.93 (95% range 0.00–1.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±246.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+127%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.93Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1.995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±246.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Townsend's Solitaire in South Dakota is projected to rise about 127% by 2029 — from 0.41 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.93 (95% range 0.00–1.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±246.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19692029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.880.001.8
20260.890.001.8
20270.910.001.8
20280.920.001.8
20290.930.001.9

Townsend's Solitaire Survey Routes in South Dakota

Routes recording Townsend's Solitaire in South Dakota.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Elk Mountain1120041992
Hill City720131992
Black Fox520141992
Norbeck520021992
Rochford420171992
Lightning Cr420221992
Hazelrodt320241992
Pleasant Val220241993
Long Draw220241992
Custer220241969
Englewood120171992
Wind Cave Np120142001
Roubaix Lk119891972
Silver City120121992

Townsend's Solitaire Population Trend in Other States

alaskaarizonacaliforniacoloradoidahomontananebraskanevadanew-mexicooregonutahwashingtonwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.