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Species · South Dakota · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Townsend's Solitaire Population Trend in South Dakota

All statesForest birds

Townsend's Solitaire in South Dakota has surged: up 13× on the route-weighted index since 1972.

13×Since 1972TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
14Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
51YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Townsend's Solitaire Trends in South DakotaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Townsend's Solitaire in South Dakota. See the full index history below.

Townsend's Solitaire Population Forecast in South Dakota

If the recent trend holds, Townsend's Solitaire in South Dakota is projected to rise about 30% by 2030 — from 0.71 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.93 (95% range 0.01–1.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±162.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+30%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.93Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.01–1.895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±162.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Townsend's Solitaire in South Dakota is projected to rise about 30% by 2030 — from 0.71 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.93 (95% range 0.01–1.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±162.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19692030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.880.001.8
20270.890.001.8
20280.900.001.8
20290.920.001.8
20300.930.011.8

Townsend's Solitaire Survey Routes in South Dakota

Routes recording Townsend's Solitaire in South Dakota.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Elk Mountain1120041992
Rochford920251992
Lightning Cr720251992
Hill City720131992
Black Fox520141992
Norbeck520021992
Custer320251969
Pleasant Val220241993
Long Draw220241992
Hazelrodt120251992
Englewood120171992
Wind Cave Np120142001
Roubaix Lk119891972
Silver City120121992

Townsend's Solitaire Population Trend in Other States

alaskaarizonacaliforniacoloradoidahomontananebraskanevadanew-mexicooregonutahwashingtonwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.