BirdAnalyst
Species · Utah · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Townsend's Solitaire Population Trend in Utah

All statesForest birds

Townsend's Solitaire in Utah has fallen sharply: down 73% on the route-weighted index since 1975.

-73%Since 1975TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
39Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
46YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Townsend's Solitaire Trends in UtahNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Townsend's Solitaire has fallen sharply in Utah: down 73% on the route-weighted index since 1975.

Townsend's Solitaire Population Forecast in Utah

If the recent trend holds, Townsend's Solitaire in Utah is projected to fall about 20% by 2030 — from 0.15 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.12 (95% range 0.00–0.36). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±29.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-20%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.12Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.3695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±29.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Townsend's Solitaire in Utah is projected to fall about 20% by 2030 — from 0.15 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.12 (95% range 0.00–0.36). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±29.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19712030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.130.000.37
20270.130.000.37
20280.120.000.36
20290.120.000.36
20300.120.000.36

Townsend's Solitaire Survey Routes in Utah

Routes recording Townsend's Solitaire in Utah.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Moon Lake 2420232004
Fayette320101993
Goose Creek Mtn.319981998
Beck 2320181990
Grizzly Rdge220251992
La Sal 2220052003
Bryce Canyon220251990
Navajo Lake220221971
Boulder220081987
Moon Lake220031997
Skyline Driv220121995
La Sal 3220252007
Hyrum119771975
Lost Cr. Res120151995
Logan Canyon120161997
Red Spur Mtn.120181997
Willow Creek120002000
Beaver120241980
Desert View120151995
Woodruff120232002
Soapstone120251997
Leamington119921992
Richfield120092000
Gooseberry120221996
La Sal120002000

Townsend's Solitaire Population Trend in Other States

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Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.