BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 17 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Townsend's Solitaire In Badlands and Prairies

All regionsBadlands and PrairiesForest birds

Townsend's Solitaire in Badlands and Prairies has surged: up 461% on the route-weighted index since 1972.

+461%Since 1972TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
29Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
54YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Townsend's Solitaire has surged in Badlands and Prairies: up 461% on the route-weighted index since 1972.

Townsend's Solitaire In Badlands and Prairies Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Townsend's Solitaire in Badlands and Prairies is projected to rise about 186% by 2029 — from 0.24 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.70 (95% range 0.08–1.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±325.3%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+186%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.70Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.08–1.395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±325.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Townsend's Solitaire in Badlands and Prairies is projected to rise about 186% by 2029 — from 0.24 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.70 (95% range 0.08–1.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±325.3%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19692029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.660.051.3
20260.670.051.3
20270.680.061.3
20280.690.071.3
20290.700.081.3

Routes In Badlands and Prairies

Routes recording Townsend's Solitaire in Badlands and Prairies.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Elk MountainSOUTH-DAKOTA112004
MoskeeWYOMING92001
Hill CitySOUTH-DAKOTA72013
Black FoxSOUTH-DAKOTA52014
NorbeckSOUTH-DAKOTA52002
RochfordSOUTH-DAKOTA42017
Lightning CrSOUTH-DAKOTA42022
JordanMONTANA32010
HazelrodtSOUTH-DAKOTA32024
Moskee 3WYOMING32024
Maynard CouleeMONTANA22024
CusterSOUTH-DAKOTA22024
Pleasant ValSOUTH-DAKOTA22024
Long DrawSOUTH-DAKOTA22024
Moskee 2WYOMING22021
Reed PointMONTANA12024
BrandenbergMONTANA12009
Roubaix LkSOUTH-DAKOTA11989
EnglewoodSOUTH-DAKOTA12017
Silver CitySOUTH-DAKOTA12012
Wind Cave NpSOUTH-DAKOTA12014
SundanceWYOMING12024
BillWYOMING12000
SchoonoverWYOMING11993
MayoworthWYOMING12024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.