BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 17 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Townsend's Solitaire In Badlands and Prairies

All regionsBadlands and PrairiesForest birds

Townsend's Solitaire in Badlands and Prairies has surged: up 502% on the route-weighted index since 1972.

+502%Since 1972TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
29Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
55YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Townsend's Solitaire in Badlands and Prairies. See the full index history below.

Townsend's Solitaire In Badlands and Prairies Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Townsend's Solitaire in Badlands and Prairies is projected to rise about 100% by 2030 — from 0.34 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.68 (95% range 0.06–1.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±231.5%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+100%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.68Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.06–1.395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±231.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Townsend's Solitaire in Badlands and Prairies is projected to rise about 100% by 2030 — from 0.34 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.68 (95% range 0.06–1.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±231.5%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19692030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.650.031.3
20270.650.041.3
20280.660.041.3
20290.670.051.3
20300.680.061.3

Routes In Badlands and Prairies

Routes recording Townsend's Solitaire in Badlands and Prairies.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Elk MountainSOUTH-DAKOTA112004
RochfordSOUTH-DAKOTA92025
MoskeeWYOMING92001
Hill CitySOUTH-DAKOTA72013
Lightning CrSOUTH-DAKOTA72025
SundanceWYOMING62025
Black FoxSOUTH-DAKOTA52014
NorbeckSOUTH-DAKOTA52002
JordanMONTANA32010
CusterSOUTH-DAKOTA32025
Maynard CouleeMONTANA22024
Pleasant ValSOUTH-DAKOTA22024
Long DrawSOUTH-DAKOTA22024
Moskee 2WYOMING22021
Reed PointMONTANA12024
BrandenbergMONTANA12009
Roubaix LkSOUTH-DAKOTA11989
EnglewoodSOUTH-DAKOTA12017
Silver CitySOUTH-DAKOTA12012
HazelrodtSOUTH-DAKOTA12025
Wind Cave NpSOUTH-DAKOTA12014
BillWYOMING12000
SchoonoverWYOMING11993
MayoworthWYOMING12024
ShawneeWYOMING12005

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.