BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 10 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Townsend's Solitaire In Northern Rockies

All regionsNorthern RockiesForest birds

Townsend's Solitaire in Northern Rockies has edged down: down 22% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-22%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
131Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Townsend's Solitaire in Northern Rockies. See the full index history below.

Townsend's Solitaire In Northern Rockies Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Townsend's Solitaire in Northern Rockies is projected to rise about 91% by 2030 — from 0.48 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.91 (95% range 0.51–1.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±38.3%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+91%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.91Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.51–1.395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±38.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Townsend's Solitaire in Northern Rockies is projected to rise about 91% by 2030 — from 0.48 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.91 (95% range 0.51–1.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±38.3%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.880.471.3
20270.890.481.3
20280.890.491.3
20290.900.501.3
20300.910.511.3

Routes In Northern Rockies

Routes recording Townsend's Solitaire in Northern Rockies.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
SilviesOREGON182024
Silver CreekOREGON122025
Mount VernonOREGON92024
Skalkho-RyeMONTANA82022
Crazy WomanWYOMING82024
Prior FlatsWYOMING82025
Omak CreekWASHINGTON72024
ChallisIDAHO62011
Lolo PassIDAHO52019
Cramer CreekMONTANA52019
CascadeIDAHO41976
CobaltIDAHO42012
WoodmanMONTANA42025
SkalkahoMONTANA41998
Summit PrOREGON42014
UnityOREGON42025
Donelly 2OREGON42025
Cape HornIDAHO32006
PolsonMONTANA32022
ArleeMONTANA32025
Painted RockMONTANA32022
GreenoughMONTANA32004
Greenoagh 2MONTANA32011
OchocoOREGON31982
Hash RockOREGON32025

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.