BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 32 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Townsend's Solitaire In Coastal California

All regionsCoastal CaliforniaForest birds

Townsend's Solitaire in Coastal California has collapsed: down 84% on the route-weighted index since 1972.

-84%Since 1972TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
20Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
48YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Townsend's Solitaire has collapsed in Coastal California: down 84% on the route-weighted index since 1972.

Townsend's Solitaire In Coastal California Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Townsend's Solitaire in Coastal California is projected to stay roughly flat through 2027, near 0.04 (95% range 0.00–0.19). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±143.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2027TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.04Projected 2027 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.1995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±143.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Townsend's Solitaire in Coastal California is projected to stay roughly flat through 2027, near 0.04 (95% range 0.00–0.19). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±143.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19702027
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20230.040.000.20
20240.040.000.20
20250.040.000.20
20260.040.000.19
20270.040.000.19

Routes In Coastal California

Routes recording Townsend's Solitaire in Coastal California.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
ValyermoCALIFORNIA102016
Angelus OaksCALIFORNIA52012
Hough SpringsCALIFORNIA32006
Mt PinosCALIFORNIA11987
Oak GroveCALIFORNIA11976
Big BearCALIFORNIA11981
TujungaCALIFORNIA11976
Lake HemetCALIFORNIA11986
FallsvaleCALIFORNIA11981
Mt BaldyCALIFORNIA12022
Green ValleyCALIFORNIA12018
White RiverCALIFORNIA11990
Mt Pinos 2CALIFORNIA12013
TehamaCALIFORNIA12014
Cleveland NfCALIFORNIA12000
Glen Ellen 2CALIFORNIA12010
Cal Hot SpgsCALIFORNIA12019
WoodlandsCALIFORNIA12018
TomheadCALIFORNIA12009
StonyfordCALIFORNIA12015

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.