BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 34 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Townsend's Solitaire In Sierra Madre Occidental

All regionsSierra Madre OccidentalForest birds

Townsend's Solitaire in Sierra Madre Occidental has collapsed: down 83% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-83%Since 1970
13Routes In Region
42Years

Notable Signals

long arc declinecomputed index

Townsend's Solitaire has collapsed in Sierra Madre Occidental: down 83% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Townsend's Solitaire in Sierra Madre Occidental is projected to rise about 21% by 2029 — from 0.06 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.07 (95% range 0.00–0.36). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±39.9%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+21%Change by 2029
0.07Projected 2029 index
0.00–0.3695% range
±39.9%Backtest error
19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected index95% low95% high
20250.090.000.37
20260.080.000.37
20270.080.000.36
20280.070.000.36
20290.070.000.36

Routes In Sierra Madre Occidental

Routes recording Townsend's Solitaire in Sierra Madre Occidental.
Mormon LakeARIZONA21974
BlueARIZONA21991
MaineARIZONA22013
FlagstaffARIZONA12019
Tonto Vill.ARIZONA12019
Forest LakesARIZONA12024
PinetopARIZONA12014
AlpineARIZONA12023
Happy JackARIZONA12018
SprucedaleARIZONA12009
PortalARIZONA12008
ReserveNEW-MEXICO12022
Vicks PeakNEW-MEXICO11996

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.