BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 34 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Townsend's Solitaire In Sierra Madre Occidental

All regionsSierra Madre OccidentalForest birds

Townsend's Solitaire in Sierra Madre Occidental has collapsed: down 83% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-83%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
13Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
42YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Townsend's Solitaire has collapsed in Sierra Madre Occidental: down 83% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Townsend's Solitaire In Sierra Madre Occidental Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Townsend's Solitaire in Sierra Madre Occidental is projected to rise about 21% by 2029 — from 0.06 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.07 (95% range 0.00–0.36). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±39.9%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+21%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.07Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.3695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±39.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Townsend's Solitaire in Sierra Madre Occidental is projected to rise about 21% by 2029 — from 0.06 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.07 (95% range 0.00–0.36). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±39.9%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.090.000.37
20260.080.000.37
20270.080.000.36
20280.070.000.36
20290.070.000.36

Routes In Sierra Madre Occidental

Routes recording Townsend's Solitaire in Sierra Madre Occidental.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Mormon LakeARIZONA21974
BlueARIZONA21991
MaineARIZONA22013
FlagstaffARIZONA12019
Tonto Vill.ARIZONA12019
Forest LakesARIZONA12024
PinetopARIZONA12014
AlpineARIZONA12023
Happy JackARIZONA12018
SprucedaleARIZONA12009
PortalARIZONA12008
ReserveNEW-MEXICO12022
Vicks PeakNEW-MEXICO11996

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.