BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 9 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Townsend's Solitaire In Great Basin

All regionsGreat BasinForest birds

Townsend's Solitaire in Great Basin has edged down: down 10% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-10%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
94Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Townsend's Solitaire in Great Basin. See the full index history below.

Townsend's Solitaire In Great Basin Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Townsend's Solitaire in Great Basin is projected to rise about 67% by 2029 — from 0.49 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.81 (95% range 0.30–1.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±47.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+67%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.81Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.30–1.395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±47.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Townsend's Solitaire in Great Basin is projected to rise about 67% by 2029 — from 0.49 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.81 (95% range 0.30–1.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±47.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.770.271.3
20260.780.281.3
20270.790.281.3
20280.800.291.3
20290.810.301.3

Routes In Great Basin

Routes recording Townsend's Solitaire in Great Basin.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Barnes ValOREGON221987
Dinner StaNEVADA121968
LakeviewOREGON122024
Bly 2OREGON112024
PaisleyOREGON102024
Crowder FlatCALIFORNIA72019
SistersOREGON52024
BartleCALIFORNIA42021
HackamoreCALIFORNIA42010
SquirrelIDAHO42009
Dell SpringOREGON41990
Lapham Res.OREGON42024
Badger CreekOREGON42024
Picture FlatOREGON42024
ChinchaloOREGON42024
AustinNEVADA32018
BlyOREGON31997
Goose Creek Mtn.UTAH31998
E. Mt. AdamsWASHINGTON32023
LikelyCALIFORNIA21999
TionestaCALIFORNIA22021
MadelineCALIFORNIA22024
Fall River MillsCALIFORNIA22010
Medicine Mtn.CALIFORNIA22021
Calico SprNEVADA21974

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.