BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 5 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Townsend's Solitaire In Northern Pacific Rainforest

All regionsNorthern Pacific RainforestForest birds

Townsend's Solitaire in Northern Pacific Rainforest has declined: down 34% on the route-weighted index since 1972.

-34%Since 1972TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
62Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
54YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Townsend's Solitaire in Northern Pacific Rainforest. See the full index history below.

Townsend's Solitaire In Northern Pacific Rainforest Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Townsend's Solitaire in Northern Pacific Rainforest is projected to rise about 178% by 2029 — from 0.15 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.41 (95% range 0.06–0.76). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±324%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+178%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.41Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.06–0.7695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±324%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Townsend's Solitaire in Northern Pacific Rainforest is projected to rise about 178% by 2029 — from 0.15 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.41 (95% range 0.06–0.76). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±324%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.400.040.75
20260.400.040.75
20270.400.050.76
20280.410.050.76
20290.410.060.76

Routes In Northern Pacific Rainforest

Routes recording Townsend's Solitaire in Northern Pacific Rainforest.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Pilot CreekCALIFORNIA71996
French GulchCALIFORNIA62007
Ship Mtn.CALIFORNIA62016
Sheep MtnALASKA42014
Thorne BayALASKA42012
Harlan 2OREGON42019
HopeALASKA32015
MccloudCALIFORNIA32021
Friday RidgeCALIFORNIA32024
South Fork MtnCALIFORNIA32022
Elk LakeOREGON32024
CinderellaOREGON32024
CordovaALASKA22006
CarrvilleCALIFORNIA21970
Martins FyCALIFORNIA21987
Shasta LakeCALIFORNIA22004
OrleansCALIFORNIA21979
Offield MtnCALIFORNIA22012
DirigioCALIFORNIA22014
Big FlatCALIFORNIA22014
Hay ForkCALIFORNIA22017
WedderburnOREGON22018
Blue RiverOREGON22016
Warner Mtn.OREGON22024
MolallaOREGON22006

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.