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Species · BCR 4 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Townsend's Solitaire In BCR 4

All regionsBCR 4Forest birds

Townsend's Solitaire in BCR 4 has edged up: up 14% on the route-weighted index since 1985.

+14%Since 1985TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
19Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
35YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Townsend's Solitaire in BCR 4. See the full index history below.

Townsend's Solitaire In BCR 4 Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Townsend's Solitaire in BCR 4 is projected to fall about 30% by 2030 — from 0.27 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.19 (95% range 0.00–0.40). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±76.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-30%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.19Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.4095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±76.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Townsend's Solitaire in BCR 4 is projected to fall about 30% by 2030 — from 0.27 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.19 (95% range 0.00–0.40). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±76.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19822030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.190.000.40
20270.190.000.40
20280.190.000.40
20290.190.000.40
20300.190.000.40

Routes In BCR 4

Routes recording Townsend's Solitaire in BCR 4.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Donelly DomeALASKA52022
EagleALASKA42025
ChickenALASKA32025
ChistochinaALASKA22024
Chena Hot SpALASKA21985
PetersvilleALASKA22014
ColdfootALASKA22022
Kanuti CanynALASKA22024
Mt. FairplayALASKA22025
Mccarthy Rd2ALASKA21989
ToklatALASKA12004
MatanuskaALASKA11982
Kenny LakeALASKA12019
Hatcher PassALASKA12019
Lake LouiseALASKA12025
Moose CreekALASKA12021
Mud RiverALASKA11996
Ft. RichrdsnALASKA12001
KuskulanaALASKA12018

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.