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Species · BCR 4 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Townsend's Solitaire In BCR 4

All regionsBCR 4Forest birds

Townsend's Solitaire in BCR 4 has increased: up 28% on the route-weighted index since 1985.

+28%Since 1985TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
18Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
34YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Townsend's Solitaire in BCR 4. See the full index history below.

Townsend's Solitaire In BCR 4 Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Townsend's Solitaire in BCR 4 is projected to fall about 18% by 2029 — from 0.22 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.18 (95% range 0.00–0.40). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±73.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-18%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.18Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.4095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±73.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Townsend's Solitaire in BCR 4 is projected to fall about 18% by 2029 — from 0.22 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.18 (95% range 0.00–0.40). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±73.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19822029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.180.000.40
20260.180.000.40
20270.180.000.40
20280.180.000.40
20290.180.000.40

Routes In BCR 4

Routes recording Townsend's Solitaire in BCR 4.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Donelly DomeALASKA52022
ChistochinaALASKA22024
Chena Hot SpALASKA21985
ChickenALASKA22024
PetersvilleALASKA22014
ColdfootALASKA22022
Kanuti CanynALASKA22024
Mccarthy Rd2ALASKA21989
EagleALASKA12024
ToklatALASKA12004
MatanuskaALASKA11982
Kenny LakeALASKA12019
Hatcher PassALASKA12019
Moose CreekALASKA12021
Mt. FairplayALASKA12024
Mud RiverALASKA11996
Ft. RichrdsnALASKA12001
KuskulanaALASKA12018

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.