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Species · Montana · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Chestnut-backed Chickadee Population Trend in Montana

All statesForest birds

Chestnut-backed Chickadee in Montana has edged down: down 15% on the route-weighted index since 1988.

-15%Since 1988TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
11Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
36YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Chestnut-backed Chickadee Trends in MontanaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Chestnut-backed Chickadee in Montana. See the full index history below.

Chestnut-backed Chickadee Population Forecast in Montana

If the recent trend holds, Chestnut-backed Chickadee in Montana is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 0.13 (95% range 0.00–0.26). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±118.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.13Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.2695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±118.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Chestnut-backed Chickadee in Montana is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 0.13 (95% range 0.00–0.26). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±118.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19862030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.130.000.26
20270.130.000.26
20280.130.000.26
20290.130.000.26
20300.130.000.26

Chestnut-backed Chickadee Survey Routes in Montana

Routes recording Chestnut-backed Chickadee in Montana.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Logan Pass320231988
Noxon320232004
Fish Creek220222022
St Regis220251988
Inside Road120061993
Libby Dam120241989
Whitefish Lake120242016
Arlee120241986
Swan Lake120232015
Woodman120242016
Thompson Riv120242006

Chestnut-backed Chickadee Population Trend in Other States

alaskacaliforniaidahooregonwashington

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.