BirdAnalyst
Species · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Chestnut-backed Chickadee

ParidaeForest birdsPoecile rufescens

Chestnut-backed Chickadee has surged: up 151% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+151%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
245RoutesSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56Years SurveyedYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

About the Chestnut-backed Chickadee

The Chestnut-backed Chickadee (Poecile rufescens) is a North American member of the Chickadees & Titmice (Paridae). In this analysis it is grouped with the forest birds.

Size
4.5–6 in long (11–15 cm) — a tiny, active songbird (typical for the family)
Habitat
Woodlands and forest edges, including wooded suburbs and parks.
Diet
Insects and spiders gleaned from foliage and bark, with seeds and berries in season.
Range
Recorded on 245 Breeding Bird Survey routes across 6 states, most concentrated in the Northern Pacific Rainforest.
Family
Paridae · Forest birds

Notable Chestnut-backed Chickadee TrendsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Chestnut-backed Chickadee has surged in surveyed states: up 151% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Chestnut-backed Chickadee Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Chestnut-backed Chickadee is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.56 (95% range 0.42–0.69). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±15%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-1%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.56Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.42–0.6995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±15%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Chestnut-backed Chickadee is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.56 (95% range 0.42–0.69). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±15%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.540.400.68
20260.540.400.68
20270.550.410.69
20280.550.410.69
20290.560.420.69

Where the Chestnut-backed Chickadee Is Detected

BBS routes recording Chestnut-backed Chickadee, sized by most recent count.

Chestnut-backed Chickadee Population Trend by State

Chestnut-backed Chickadee population trend by state.
TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →Baseline yearThe first year of the smoothed window the trend is measured from. An earlier baseline means a longer record stands behind the number.Full methodology →Survey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
Alaska+169%197528
California-46%197075
Idaho+207%197915
Montana+39%198811
Oregon+94%197056
Washington+65%197060

Chestnut-backed Chickadee Population Trend by Region

Bird Conservation Regions are the ecological unit for trends.

Chestnut-backed Chickadee population trend by Bird Conservation Region.
TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →Baseline yearThe first year of the smoothed window the trend is measured from. An earlier baseline means a longer record stands behind the number.Full methodology →Survey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
Northern Pacific Rainforest+39%1970144
Great Basin+450%197124
Northern Rockies+393%197935
Sierra Nevada+272%197610
Coastal California-46%197032

Chestnut-backed Chickadee Conservation Status

Our route-weighted index shows it up about 151% since 1970.

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22. Trend is a route-weighted relative-abundance index, not an absolute population.