BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 9 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Chestnut-backed Chickadee In Great Basin

All regionsGreat BasinForest birds

Chestnut-backed Chickadee in Great Basin has surged: up 450% on the route-weighted index since 1971.

+450%Since 1971TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
24Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
55YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Chestnut-backed Chickadee has surged in Great Basin: up 450% on the route-weighted index since 1971.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Chestnut-backed Chickadee in Great Basin is projected to rise about 15% by 2029 — from 0.91 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.1 (95% range 0.66–1.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±12.6%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+15%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.1Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.66–1.595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±12.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Chestnut-backed Chickadee in Great Basin is projected to rise about 15% by 2029 — from 0.91 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.1 (95% range 0.66–1.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±12.6%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19692029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20251.00.601.4
20261.00.621.4
20271.00.631.4
20281.00.651.4
20291.10.661.5

Routes In Great Basin

Routes recording Chestnut-backed Chickadee in Great Basin.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
GlacierWASHINGTON442024
Index 2WASHINGTON342023
KendallWASHINGTON212024
E. Mt. AdamsWASHINGTON182024
SnowdenWASHINGTON112024
NewhalemWASHINGTON82024
White ChuckWASHINGTON82024
RonaldWASHINGTON72024
Suiattle RivWASHINGTON72019
L. WenatcheeWASHINGTON72024
IndexWASHINGTON61971
No CascadesWASHINGTON62019
Cascade RivWASHINGTON52006
Medicine Mtn.CALIFORNIA22004
Mt HoodOREGON22024
Camp ShermanOREGON21994
Badger CreekOREGON22023
RimrockWASHINGTON22024
IndexWASHINGTON21997
ConcreteWASHINGTON22023
Wizard FallsOREGON12018
LeavenworthWASHINGTON12023
Blewett PassWASHINGTON12022
MazamaWASHINGTON12001

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.