BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 5 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Chestnut-backed Chickadee In Northern Pacific Rainforest

All regionsNorthern Pacific RainforestForest birds

Chestnut-backed Chickadee in Northern Pacific Rainforest has increased: up 39% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+39%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
144Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Chestnut-backed Chickadee in Northern Pacific Rainforest. See the full index history below.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Chestnut-backed Chickadee in Northern Pacific Rainforest is projected to fall about 18% by 2029 — from 13 in 2024 to a central estimate of 10 (95% range 7.5–13). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±18.2%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-18%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
10Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
7.5–1395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±18.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Chestnut-backed Chickadee in Northern Pacific Rainforest is projected to fall about 18% by 2029 — from 13 in 2024 to a central estimate of 10 (95% range 7.5–13). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±18.2%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025107.313
2026107.313
2027107.413
2028107.513
2029107.513

Routes In Northern Pacific Rainforest

Routes recording Chestnut-backed Chickadee in Northern Pacific Rainforest.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Vashon Is.WASHINGTON582024
ElktonOREGON522024
CougarWASHINGTON482023
FisherOREGON472010
Whale PassALASKA442024
ZaremboALASKA362024
Crescent CtyCALIFORNIA362024
Port AngelesWASHINGTON362024
NeiltonWASHINGTON361975
Hazel CampOREGON332022
Mt. AdamsWASHINGTON322024
HolmesCALIFORNIA282024
PetersburgALASKA271987
Warner Mtn.OREGON272024
CraigALASKA262024
Thorne Bay 2ALASKA262024
Redwood N.P. 2CALIFORNIA262013
Fish RockCALIFORNIA252014
ClearwaterOREGON252021
Warm BeachWASHINGTON242017
ShellrockOREGON232023
WedderburnOREGON232024
LoraneOREGON232024
Raymond 2WASHINGTON232024
MolallaOREGON222024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.