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Species · Montana · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Mountain Bluebird Population Trend in Montana

All statesForest birds

Mountain Bluebird in Montana has edged up: up 24% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+24%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
86Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Mountain Bluebird Trends in MontanaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Mountain Bluebird in Montana. See the full index history below.

Mountain Bluebird Population Forecast in Montana

If the recent trend holds, Mountain Bluebird in Montana is projected to rise about 75% by 2029 — from 1.7 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.9 (95% range 1.5–4.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±151.4%, with 0% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+75%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.9Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.5–4.495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±151.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Mountain Bluebird in Montana is projected to rise about 75% by 2029 — from 1.7 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.9 (95% range 1.5–4.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±151.4%, with 0% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20252.81.44.2
20262.91.44.3
20272.91.54.3
20282.91.54.3
20292.91.54.4

Mountain Bluebird Survey Routes in Montana

Routes recording Mountain Bluebird in Montana.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Red Rock2820241973
Bull Mtn.1720211995
Polson1320241988
Pagil Gulch1120242015
Chestnut720241968
Reed Point720241978
Beaverhead720241973
Philipsburg720242015
Maynard Coulee720242017
Laurel620171985
East Glacier Park620242015
Greenoagh 2620112005
Leroy520241971
Freeman Creek520162015
Custer520192019
Miles City520222016
Greenough520041995
Fort Logan520242018
Roy419891989
Glen420171978
Roundup420232017
Brunzell Slough420242015
Chuffey Spring420222018
Logan Pass420241980
St Mary320081969

Mountain Bluebird Population Trend in Other States

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Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.