BirdAnalyst
Species · Montana · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Mountain Bluebird Population Trend in Montana

All statesForest birds

Mountain Bluebird in Montana has increased: up 43% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+43%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
88Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Mountain Bluebird Trends in MontanaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Mountain Bluebird in Montana. See the full index history below.

Mountain Bluebird Population Forecast in Montana

If the recent trend holds, Mountain Bluebird in Montana is projected to rise about 47% by 2030 — from 2.0 in 2025 to a central estimate of 2.9 (95% range 1.5–4.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±148.2%, with 0% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+47%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.9Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.5–4.395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±148.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Mountain Bluebird in Montana is projected to rise about 47% by 2030 — from 2.0 in 2025 to a central estimate of 2.9 (95% range 1.5–4.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±148.2%, with 0% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20262.81.44.2
20272.81.44.2
20282.81.44.3
20292.91.44.3
20302.91.54.3

Mountain Bluebird Survey Routes in Montana

Routes recording Mountain Bluebird in Montana.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Red Rock3520251973
Philipsburg1720252015
Bull Mtn.1720211995
Chestnut1220251968
Beaverhead1120251973
Boulder920251969
Maynard Coulee920252017
Lima820251994
Brunzell Slough720252015
Laurel620171985
East Glacier Park620242015
Hebgen Lake620252017
Greenoagh 2620112005
Leroy520241971
Glen520251978
Freeman Creek520162015
Custer520192019
Miles City520222016
Greenough520041995
Roy419891989
Woodman420251971
Reed Point420251978
Pagil Gulch420252015
Roundup420252017
Logan Pass420251980

Mountain Bluebird Population Trend in Other States

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Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.