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Species · Wyoming · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Mountain Bluebird Population Trend in Wyoming

All statesForest birds

Mountain Bluebird in Wyoming has surged: up 187% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+187%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
117Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Mountain Bluebird Trends in WyomingNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Mountain Bluebird has surged in Wyoming: up 186% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Mountain Bluebird Population Forecast in Wyoming

If the recent trend holds, Mountain Bluebird in Wyoming is projected to rise about 28% by 2029 — from 2.7 in 2024 to a central estimate of 3.4 (95% range 0.92–5.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±59.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+28%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
3.4Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.92–5.995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±59.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Mountain Bluebird in Wyoming is projected to rise about 28% by 2029 — from 2.7 in 2024 to a central estimate of 3.4 (95% range 0.92–5.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±59.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20253.40.885.9
20263.40.895.9
20273.40.905.9
20283.40.915.9
20293.40.925.9

Mountain Bluebird Survey Routes in Wyoming

Routes recording Mountain Bluebird in Wyoming.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Meeteetse3420241991
Mtn View3120241980
Green River2219841977
Warbonnet1420191990
Crazy Woman1320241979
Ervay1220241973
Dubois1120241968
Buford1020241974
Fox Park1020241994
Prior Flats1020241991
Crowheart920211987
Flamin Gorge920241988
Carter920162006
Rock Springs 2920242023
Patrick Draw819801976
Meadowdale819951983
Nowood720241988
Lysite720241989
Mayoworth720181982
Rock Springs720221977
Mckinnon619861976
Moose620241976
Anchor620182002
Carter 2620232017
Fontenelle520241982

Mountain Bluebird Population Trend in Other States

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Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.