BirdAnalyst
Species · Oregon · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Mountain Bluebird Population Trend in Oregon

All statesForest birds

Mountain Bluebird in Oregon has declined: down 35% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-35%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
79Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Mountain Bluebird Trends in OregonNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Mountain Bluebird in Oregon. See the full index history below.

Mountain Bluebird Population Forecast in Oregon

If the recent trend holds, Mountain Bluebird in Oregon is projected to fall about 25% by 2029 — from 3.3 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.5 (95% range 0.29–4.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±33.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-25%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.5Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.29–4.695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±33.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Mountain Bluebird in Oregon is projected to fall about 25% by 2029 — from 3.3 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.5 (95% range 0.29–4.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±33.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20252.50.374.7
20262.50.354.7
20272.50.334.7
20282.50.314.6
20292.50.294.6

Mountain Bluebird Survey Routes in Oregon

Routes recording Mountain Bluebird in Oregon.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Buchanan3320241971
Clover Creek3220241972
Bly 22620242007
Green Mtn.2520241994
Silver Creek2220241984
Donelly 21920242018
Lone Rock1820242007
Crooked Riv.1720241994
Paisley1420241973
Monument1320241998
Deschutes1120241968
Barnes Val1019871971
Mount Vernon720241986
Unity720241992
Bridgeport620211986
Barnhouse620241998
Black Mtn.620041996
Albee520241968
Hash Rock520241983
Dell Spring419901968
Wagontire420241968
Elk Lake420181972
Troy420231992
Bald Mtn.419981992
Eagle Creek420221994

Mountain Bluebird Population Trend in Other States

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Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.