BirdAnalyst
Species · Oregon · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Mountain Bluebird Population Trend in Oregon

All statesForest birds

Mountain Bluebird in Oregon has declined: down 41% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-41%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
80Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Mountain Bluebird Trends in OregonNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Mountain Bluebird in Oregon. See the full index history below.

Mountain Bluebird Population Forecast in Oregon

If the recent trend holds, Mountain Bluebird in Oregon is projected to fall about 20% by 2030 — from 3.1 in 2025 to a central estimate of 2.5 (95% range 0.33–4.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±34.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-20%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.5Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.33–4.695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±34.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Mountain Bluebird in Oregon is projected to fall about 20% by 2030 — from 3.1 in 2025 to a central estimate of 2.5 (95% range 0.33–4.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±34.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20262.60.404.7
20272.50.394.7
20282.50.374.7
20292.50.354.7
20302.50.334.6

Mountain Bluebird Survey Routes in Oregon

Routes recording Mountain Bluebird in Oregon.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Clover Creek4520251972
Green Mtn.2920251994
Buchanan2720251971
Lapham Res.1920251992
Lone Rock1820242007
Donelly 21720252018
Deschutes1520251968
Paisley1520251973
Wagontire1420251968
Silver Creek1420251984
Bly 21220252007
Barnhouse1220251998
Madras1120251997
Barnes Val1019871971
Crooked Riv.1020251994
Wallowa820252025
Mount Vernon720241986
Fish Lake720251972
Bridgeport620211986
Hash Rock620251983
Black Mtn.620041996
Albee520251968
Picture Flat520251993
Monument520251998
Logdell420251987

Mountain Bluebird Population Trend in Other States

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Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.