BirdAnalyst
Species · Nevada · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Mountain Bluebird Population Trend in Nevada

All statesForest birds

Mountain Bluebird in Nevada has declined: down 45% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-45%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
24Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Mountain Bluebird Trends in NevadaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Mountain Bluebird in Nevada. See the full index history below.

Mountain Bluebird Population Forecast in Nevada

If the recent trend holds, Mountain Bluebird in Nevada is projected to rise about 144% by 2030 — from 0.71 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.7 (95% range 0.00–4.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±126.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+144%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.7Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–4.995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±126.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Mountain Bluebird in Nevada is projected to rise about 144% by 2030 — from 0.71 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.7 (95% range 0.00–4.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±126.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20261.80.004.9
20271.80.004.9
20281.70.004.9
20291.70.004.9
20301.70.004.9

Mountain Bluebird Survey Routes in Nevada

Routes recording Mountain Bluebird in Nevada.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Ranchogrande1920241988
Walker Can1920241968
Illipah720211968
Bald Mtn.720251992
Humboldt Nf 2620252021
Jarbidge620151997
Sheldon Nwr520101992
Dobbin Creek520181968
Comins Lake420162005
Fish Creek420152006
Mizpah320241988
Eureka320151976
Majors Place319961996
Dinner Sta219931968
Humboldt Nf220181993
Cortez220251968
Caliente220192011
Hawthorne220012001
Midas119901990
Toiyabe Nf119941994
Gardnerville120051994
Ruby Valley 2120242005
Minerva119931989
Charleston Reservoir120242024

Mountain Bluebird Population Trend in Other States

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Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.