Species · Arizona · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024
Mountain Bluebird Population Trend in Arizona
Mountain Bluebird in Arizona has fallen sharply: down 73% on the route-weighted index since 1970.
-73%Since 1970
27Routes In State
56Years
Notable Mountain Bluebird Trends in Arizona
long arc declinecomputed index
Mountain Bluebird has fallen sharply in Arizona: down 73% on the route-weighted index since 1970.
Mountain Bluebird Population Forecast in Arizona
If the recent trend holds, Mountain Bluebird in Arizona is projected to rise about 129% by 2029 — from 0.14 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.33 (95% range 0.00–1.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±60.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.
+129%Change by 2029
0.33Projected 2029 index
0.00–1.395% range
±60.4%Backtest error
| Year | Projected index | 95% low | 95% high |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 0.38 | 0.00 | 1.4 |
| 2026 | 0.37 | 0.00 | 1.4 |
| 2027 | 0.35 | 0.00 | 1.4 |
| 2028 | 0.34 | 0.00 | 1.3 |
| 2029 | 0.33 | 0.00 | 1.3 |
Mountain Bluebird Survey Routes in Arizona
| Alpine | 12 | 2023 | 1992 |
| Black Mesa | 11 | 1995 | 1988 |
| Round Rock | 11 | 1976 | 1969 |
| Yampai | 7 | 1977 | 1969 |
| Greasewood | 6 | 1996 | 1993 |
| Sprucedale | 6 | 2023 | 1992 |
| Cow Springs | 4 | 2022 | 1993 |
| Pinetop | 4 | 2022 | 1993 |
| Mormon Lake | 3 | 1975 | 1968 |
| Blue | 3 | 1991 | 1976 |
| Williams | 3 | 2019 | 2001 |
| Rose Wells | 2 | 1978 | 1968 |
| Flagstaff | 2 | 2019 | 1988 |
| Sawmill | 2 | 2010 | 1988 |
| Maine | 2 | 2024 | 1992 |
| Forest Lakes | 2 | 2023 | 1992 |
| Tsaile | 2 | 2023 | 1993 |
| Clay Spring | 2 | 2024 | 1992 |
| House Rock | 1 | 2022 | 1968 |
| Zeniff | 1 | 1984 | 1969 |
| Hunt | 1 | 2018 | 1968 |
| Toroweap | 1 | 2023 | 1995 |
| Dry Park | 1 | 2024 | 1992 |
| Page | 1 | 2018 | 1996 |
| Castle Butte | 1 | 2007 | 1992 |
Mountain Bluebird Population Trend in Other States
Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.