BirdAnalyst
Species · Arizona · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Mountain Bluebird Population Trend in Arizona

All statesForest birds

Mountain Bluebird in Arizona has collapsed: down 77% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-77%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
27Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Mountain Bluebird Trends in ArizonaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Mountain Bluebird has collapsed in Arizona: down 76% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Mountain Bluebird Population Forecast in Arizona

If the recent trend holds, Mountain Bluebird in Arizona is projected to fall about 46% by 2030 — from 0.61 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.33 (95% range 0.00–1.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±62.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-46%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.33Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1.395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±62.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Mountain Bluebird in Arizona is projected to fall about 46% by 2030 — from 0.61 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.33 (95% range 0.00–1.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±62.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.380.001.4
20270.370.001.4
20280.360.001.4
20290.340.001.3
20300.330.001.3

Mountain Bluebird Survey Routes in Arizona

Routes recording Mountain Bluebird in Arizona.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Black Mesa1119951988
Round Rock1119761969
Yampai719771969
Greasewood619961993
Alpine620251992
Maine520251992
Cow Springs420221993
Pinetop420221993
Mormon Lake319751968
Blue319911976
Williams320252001
Happy Jack320251977
Rose Wells219781968
Sawmill220101988
Dry Park220251992
Tsaile220231993
Clay Spring220251992
Sprucedale220251992
House Rock120221968
Flagstaff120251988
Zeniff119841969
Hunt120181968
Toroweap120231995
Page120181996
Castle Butte120071992

Mountain Bluebird Population Trend in Other States

alaskacaliforniacoloradoidahomontananebraskanevadanew-mexiconorth-dakotaoregonsouth-dakotautahwashingtonwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.