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Species · Colorado · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Mountain Bluebird Population Trend in Colorado

All statesForest birds

Mountain Bluebird in Colorado has surged: up 166% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+166%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
114Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Mountain Bluebird Trends in ColoradoNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Mountain Bluebird has surged in Colorado: up 166% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Mountain Bluebird Population Forecast in Colorado

If the recent trend holds, Mountain Bluebird in Colorado is projected to rise about 52% by 2030 — from 3.9 in 2025 to a central estimate of 5.9 (95% range 3.8–8.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±66.4%, with 0% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+52%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
5.9Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
3.8–8.095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±66.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Mountain Bluebird in Colorado is projected to rise about 52% by 2030 — from 3.9 in 2025 to a central estimate of 5.9 (95% range 3.8–8.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±66.4%, with 0% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20265.63.57.8
20275.73.67.8
20285.83.77.9
20295.83.78.0
20305.93.88.0

Mountain Bluebird Survey Routes in Colorado

Routes recording Mountain Bluebird in Colorado.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Piceance Basin3220121998
Deadman Rd.2820251992
Angora2720251998
Wray Gulch2420251988
Yampa2220231969
Walsenburg1920251994
Yellowjacket Pass1920251998
Baxter Pass1820241994
Animas1320041996
Cokedale1220251995
Ninaview1220172001
Dinosaur1220251995
Ragged Mtn.1220251994
Rifle Falls1220251998
Rosevale1120252009
Tincup1120251992
Pinos Creek1019901988
Como1020251994
Westcliffe1020251998
Guffey920251990
Pinon920251992
Wet Mtns.920251993
Powderhorn920251994
Gribbles Prk920251994
Black Sulphur Cr920252015

Mountain Bluebird Population Trend in Other States

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Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.