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Species · Colorado · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Mountain Bluebird Population Trend in Colorado

All statesForest birds

Mountain Bluebird in Colorado has surged: up 166% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+166%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
113Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Mountain Bluebird Trends in ColoradoNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Mountain Bluebird has surged in Colorado: up 166% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Mountain Bluebird Population Forecast in Colorado

If the recent trend holds, Mountain Bluebird in Colorado is projected to rise about 57% by 2029 — from 3.8 in 2024 to a central estimate of 6.0 (95% range 3.9–8.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±66%, with 0% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+57%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
6.0Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
3.9–8.195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±66%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Mountain Bluebird in Colorado is projected to rise about 57% by 2029 — from 3.8 in 2024 to a central estimate of 6.0 (95% range 3.9–8.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±66%, with 0% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20255.73.67.8
20265.83.77.9
20275.93.87.9
20285.93.88.0
20296.03.98.1

Mountain Bluebird Survey Routes in Colorado

Routes recording Mountain Bluebird in Colorado.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Angora4420241998
Piceance Basin3220121998
Wray Gulch2720231988
Gribbles Prk2320241994
Yampa2220231969
Dinosaur1920241995
Ludlow1920161998
Deadman Rd.1820241992
Baxter Pass1820241994
Rosevale1720242009
Cokedale1420241995
Powderhorn1420231994
Animas 21420182005
Tincup1320241992
Animas1320041996
Guffey1220241990
Ninaview1220172001
Black Sulphur Cr1220242015
Pinos Creek1019901988
Lake City 2920242016
Walsenburg920241994
Elbert920241998
Moon Pass920241998
Villegreen720171988
Browns Park720241992

Mountain Bluebird Population Trend in Other States

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Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.