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Species · Utah · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Mountain Bluebird Population Trend in Utah

All statesForest birds

Mountain Bluebird in Utah has increased: up 48% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+48%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
95Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Mountain Bluebird Trends in UtahNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Mountain Bluebird in Utah. See the full index history below.

Mountain Bluebird Population Forecast in Utah

If the recent trend holds, Mountain Bluebird in Utah is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 4.0 (95% range 1.1–7.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±42.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+5%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
4.0Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.1–7.095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±42.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Mountain Bluebird in Utah is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 4.0 (95% range 1.1–7.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±42.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20253.90.956.9
20263.90.976.9
20274.01.06.9
20284.01.07.0
20294.01.17.0

Mountain Bluebird Survey Routes in Utah

Routes recording Mountain Bluebird in Utah.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Grizzly Rdge5120241986
M Warner Res4020241993
Richfield3520191994
Hanna2320241997
Hyrum2019791976
Beck 21920181990
Vernal1520161999
Newcastle1320221997
Glen Canyon1220241991
Uintah Nf1119941987
Fish Lake Nf1020241992
Ferron1020222000
Crawford Mts1020232002
Willow Creek920241986
Soapstone920241992
Gooseberry920241996
Book Ridge920232003
Fayette820211992
Castle Dale820151993
Hatch820241994
Woodruff820242002
Moon Lake 2720232004
Saleratus Cr720151995
Bryce Canyon720241990
Blanding620241987

Mountain Bluebird Population Trend in Other States

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Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.