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Species · Utah · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Mountain Bluebird Population Trend in Utah

All statesForest birds

Mountain Bluebird in Utah has risen sharply: up 68% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+68%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
95Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Mountain Bluebird Trends in UtahNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Mountain Bluebird has risen sharply in Utah: up 68% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Mountain Bluebird Population Forecast in Utah

If the recent trend holds, Mountain Bluebird in Utah is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 4.1 (95% range 1.1–7.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±38.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-2%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
4.1Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.1–7.095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±38.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Mountain Bluebird in Utah is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 4.1 (95% range 1.1–7.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±38.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20263.91.06.9
20274.01.06.9
20284.01.16.9
20294.01.17.0
20304.11.17.0

Mountain Bluebird Survey Routes in Utah

Routes recording Mountain Bluebird in Utah.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Beck 24020251990
M Warner Res3920251993
Richfield3520191994
Fayette2520251992
Hanna2320241997
Grizzly Rdge2220251986
Hyrum2019791976
Dixie Nf1820251993
Vernal1520161999
Ant Flat-Ogden Can1120251994
Uintah Nf1119941987
Gooseberry1120251996
Soapstone1020251992
Crawford Mts1020232002
Willow Creek920241986
Book Ridge920232003
Ferron920252000
Skyline Driv820251986
Jensen820251992
Fish Lake Nf820251992
Castle Dale820151993
Hatch820241994
Altonah720251968
Moon Lake 2720232004
Saleratus Cr720151995

Mountain Bluebird Population Trend in Other States

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Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.