BirdAnalyst
Species · New Mexico · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Mountain Bluebird Population Trend in New Mexico

All statesForest birds

Mountain Bluebird in New Mexico has declined: down 43% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-43%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
46Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Mountain Bluebird Trends in New MexicoNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Mountain Bluebird in New Mexico. See the full index history below.

Mountain Bluebird Population Forecast in New Mexico

If the recent trend holds, Mountain Bluebird in New Mexico is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 1.1 (95% range 0.00–3.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±55.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-9%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.1Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–3.295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±55.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Mountain Bluebird in New Mexico is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 1.1 (95% range 0.00–3.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±55.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20261.30.003.4
20271.20.003.3
20281.20.003.3
20291.20.003.3
20301.10.003.2

Mountain Bluebird Survey Routes in New Mexico

Routes recording Mountain Bluebird in New Mexico.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Pecos1720171973
Quemado1319971992
La Plata 21220162014
Capulin1119941993
Angel Fire1120021992
Torreon1020251975
Mcgaffey920251994
Dulce820252000
Datil719931993
Vicks Peak719991992
Nageesi620251968
Fence Lake520251975
Angel Fire 2520252005
Gallinas520251992
La Plata520131991
Aztec519891988
Stinking Lk.419991992
Mt. Taylor420121993
Lake Valley419891989
Farmington319871975
Horse Mtn320221968
Salt Lake320011999
Counselor320251992
Cebolla220221973
Ojo Sarco220241968

Mountain Bluebird Population Trend in Other States

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Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.