BirdAnalyst
Species · Idaho · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Mountain Bluebird Population Trend in Idaho

All statesForest birds

Mountain Bluebird in Idaho has edged down: down 14% on the route-weighted index since 1971.

-14%Since 1971TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
49Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
55YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Mountain Bluebird Trends in IdahoNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Mountain Bluebird in Idaho. See the full index history below.

Mountain Bluebird Population Forecast in Idaho

If the recent trend holds, Mountain Bluebird in Idaho is projected to fall about 15% by 2029 — from 2.2 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.8 (95% range 0.72–2.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±79.2%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-15%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.8Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.72–2.995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±79.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Mountain Bluebird in Idaho is projected to fall about 15% by 2029 — from 2.2 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.8 (95% range 0.72–2.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±79.2%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20251.80.672.9
20261.80.682.9
20271.80.692.9
20281.80.712.9
20291.80.722.9

Mountain Bluebird Survey Routes in Idaho

Routes recording Mountain Bluebird in Idaho.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Dougal Res3120241988
Sawtooth Cty1120141989
Mud Lake720041988
Henry619831973
Leadore520241976
Featherville520161989
Almo520231988
Baker420241982
Silver City420222012
Naples320001975
Lolo Pass320101993
Centerville320191972
Alturas319871968
Iron Springs320241988
Mivoden219941994
Challis220241977
Triangle220241985
Baldy Mountain220162013
Sawtooth City 2220242015
Cobalt220241990
Yellow Pine219981990
Picabo220172017
Cabarton220231991
Blackft Res120181984
Avery120061981

Mountain Bluebird Population Trend in Other States

alaskaarizonacaliforniacoloradomontananebraskanevadanew-mexiconorth-dakotaoregonsouth-dakotautahwashingtonwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.