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Species · Nebraska · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Mountain Bluebird Population Trend in Nebraska

All statesForest birds

Mountain Bluebird in Nebraska has collapsed: down 86% on the route-weighted index since 1982.

-86%Since 1982TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
4Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
41YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Mountain Bluebird Trends in NebraskaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Mountain Bluebird has collapsed in Nebraska: down 86% on the route-weighted index since 1982.

Mountain Bluebird Population Forecast in Nebraska

If the recent trend holds, Mountain Bluebird in Nebraska is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 0.19 (95% range 0.00–0.50). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±1027%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.19Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.5095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±1027%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Mountain Bluebird in Nebraska is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 0.19 (95% range 0.00–0.50). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±1027%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19802030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.190.000.50
20270.190.000.50
20280.190.000.50
20290.190.000.50
20300.190.000.50

Mountain Bluebird Survey Routes in Nebraska

Routes recording Mountain Bluebird in Nebraska.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Oglala Nat. Grass.420192010
Agate 2220182018
Crawford120251980
Pine Ridge120221999

Mountain Bluebird Population Trend in Other States

alaskaarizonacaliforniacoloradoidahomontananevadanew-mexiconorth-dakotaoregonsouth-dakotautahwashingtonwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.