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Species · Montana · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Mountain Chickadee Population Trend in Montana

All statesForest birds

Mountain Chickadee in Montana has surged: up 130% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+130%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
53Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Mountain Chickadee Trends in MontanaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Mountain Chickadee has surged in Montana: up 130% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Mountain Chickadee Population Forecast in Montana

If the recent trend holds, Mountain Chickadee in Montana is projected to rise about 27% by 2029 — from 1.5 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.0 (95% range 1.0–2.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±38%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+27%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.0Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.0–2.995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±38%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Mountain Chickadee in Montana is projected to rise about 27% by 2029 — from 1.5 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.0 (95% range 1.0–2.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±38%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20251.90.942.8
20261.90.962.9
20271.90.982.9
20281.90.992.9
20292.01.02.9

Mountain Chickadee Survey Routes in Montana

Routes recording Mountain Chickadee in Montana.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Maynard Coulee2420242017
Greenoagh 21420112005
Hebgen Lake1320242017
Wise River1320241993
Skalkho-Rye1120221999
Greenoagh 31120242012
Freeman Creek1020162016
Threemile Wa920241993
Skalkaho819981992
Arlee720241968
Elevation Mt620241996
Painted Rock620191992
Greenough520041995
Pryor Mtn.520241995
Kalispell420241968
Cramer Creek420192003
Woodman420241968
Whitefish Lake420242016
Thompson Riv420241994
Philipsburg420222022
Lima420181994
Highwood319721972
Clinton320241972
Inside Road320221990
Reed Point320241979

Mountain Chickadee Population Trend in Other States

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Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.