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Species · Montana · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Mountain Chickadee Population Trend in Montana

All statesForest birds

Mountain Chickadee in Montana has surged: up 97% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+97%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
53Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Mountain Chickadee Trends in MontanaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Mountain Chickadee has surged in Montana: up 97% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Mountain Chickadee Population Forecast in Montana

If the recent trend holds, Mountain Chickadee in Montana is projected to rise about 67% by 2030 — from 1.1 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.9 (95% range 0.96–2.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±45%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+67%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.9Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.96–2.995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±45%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Mountain Chickadee in Montana is projected to rise about 67% by 2030 — from 1.1 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.9 (95% range 0.96–2.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±45%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20261.90.902.8
20271.90.912.8
20281.90.932.8
20291.90.942.9
20301.90.962.9

Mountain Chickadee Survey Routes in Montana

Routes recording Mountain Chickadee in Montana.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Maynard Coulee2220252017
Greenoagh 21420112005
Hebgen Lake1220252017
Skalkho-Rye1120221999
Freeman Creek1020162016
Greenoagh 3820252012
Skalkaho819981992
Pryor Mtn.720251995
Chestnut720251969
Threemile Wa620251993
Painted Rock620191992
Greenough520041995
Elevation Mt520251996
Woodman520251968
Cramer Creek420192003
Fort Logan420252018
Whitefish Lake420242016
Thompson Riv420241994
Philipsburg420222022
Lima420181994
Victor320251993
Highwood319721972
Clinton320241972
Inside Road320221990
Reed Point320241979

Mountain Chickadee Population Trend in Other States

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Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.