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Species · Washington · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Mountain Chickadee Population Trend in Washington

All statesForest birds

Mountain Chickadee in Washington has declined: down 33% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-33%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
38Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Mountain Chickadee Trends in WashingtonNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Mountain Chickadee in Washington. See the full index history below.

Mountain Chickadee Population Forecast in Washington

If the recent trend holds, Mountain Chickadee in Washington is projected to rise about 11% by 2029 — from 1.6 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.8 (95% range 0.47–3.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±71.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+11%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.8Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.47–3.195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±71.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Mountain Chickadee in Washington is projected to rise about 11% by 2029 — from 1.6 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.8 (95% range 0.47–3.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±71.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20251.70.443.0
20261.70.453.0
20271.80.453.0
20281.80.463.1
20291.80.473.1

Mountain Chickadee Survey Routes in Washington

Routes recording Mountain Chickadee in Washington.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Omak Creek1920241996
Curlew1320131992
Twin Lakes1220241983
L Pend O Nwr1120241995
Mazama1120221993
Cloverland1020241993
Keller920071968
Deer Park820151994
L. Wenatchee720241993
Chewelah620191977
Tonasket520131990
Blewett Pass520241992
Lake Chelan520241988
Ardenvoir419871969
Ronald420241973
Pomeroy420091993
Laurier420221995
Northport420241996
E. Mt. Adams320231995
Rimrock320241968
Sullivan Lake 2320242001
Leavenworth320241981
Carlton320221992
Mt Rainier320191995
Winthrop220151983

Mountain Chickadee Population Trend in Other States

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Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.