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Species · Washington · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Mountain Chickadee Population Trend in Washington

All statesForest birds

Mountain Chickadee in Washington has declined: down 29% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-29%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
38Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Mountain Chickadee Trends in WashingtonNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Mountain Chickadee in Washington. See the full index history below.

Mountain Chickadee Population Forecast in Washington

If the recent trend holds, Mountain Chickadee in Washington is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 1.8 (95% range 0.48–3.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±34.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+6%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.8Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.48–3.195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±34.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Mountain Chickadee in Washington is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 1.8 (95% range 0.48–3.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±34.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20261.70.453.0
20271.70.463.0
20281.80.473.0
20291.80.473.0
20301.80.483.1

Mountain Chickadee Survey Routes in Washington

Routes recording Mountain Chickadee in Washington.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Omak Creek1920241996
Lake Chelan1420251988
Curlew1320131992
Cloverland1320251993
L Pend O Nwr1120241995
Mazama1120221993
Keller920071968
Blewett Pass920251992
Ronald820251973
Deer Park820151994
L. Wenatchee720251993
Chewelah620191977
Twin Lakes620251983
Rimrock520251968
Tonasket520131990
Ardenvoir419871969
Pomeroy420091993
Laurier420221995
Northport420251996
E. Mt. Adams320251995
Leavenworth320241981
Ellensburg320251983
Carlton320221992
Mt Rainier320191995
Mt. Adams320251993

Mountain Chickadee Population Trend in Other States

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Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.