BirdAnalyst
Species · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Mountain Chickadee Population Analysis

ParidaeForest birdsPoecile gambeli

Mountain Chickadee has surged: up 160% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+160%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
587RoutesSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57Years SurveyedYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

About the Mountain Chickadee

The Mountain Chickadee (Poecile gambeli) is a North American member of the Chickadees & Titmice (Paridae). In this analysis it is grouped with the forest birds.

Size
4.5–6 in long (11–15 cm) — a tiny, active songbird (typical for the family)
Habitat
Woodlands and forest edges, including wooded suburbs and parks.
Diet
Insects and spiders gleaned from foliage and bark, with seeds and berries in season.
Range
Recorded on 587 Breeding Bird Survey routes across 11 states, most concentrated in the Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau.
Family
Paridae · Forest birds

Notable Mountain Chickadee TrendsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Mountain Chickadee has surged in surveyed states: up 160% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Mountain Chickadee Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Mountain Chickadee is projected to rise about 16% by 2030 — from 0.95 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.1 (95% range 0.74–1.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±42%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+16%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.1Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.74–1.595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±42%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Mountain Chickadee is projected to rise about 16% by 2030 — from 0.95 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.1 (95% range 0.74–1.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±42%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20261.10.721.4
20271.10.721.4
20281.10.731.4
20291.10.741.4
20301.10.741.5

Where the Mountain Chickadee Is Detected

BBS routes recording Mountain Chickadee, sized by most recent count.

Mountain Chickadee Population Trend by State

Mountain Chickadee population trend by state.
TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →Baseline yearThe first year of the smoothed window the trend is measured from. An earlier baseline means a longer record stands behind the number.Full methodology →Survey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
Arizona+45%197028
California+32%1970122
Colorado+111%197093
Idaho+1%197341
Montana+97%197053
Nevada-80%198116
New Mexico+110%197031
Oregon-8%197071
Utah+14%197056
Washington-29%197038
Wyoming+35%197038

Mountain Chickadee Population Trend by Region

Bird Conservation Regions are the ecological unit for trends.

Mountain Chickadee population trend by Bird Conservation Region.
TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →Baseline yearThe first year of the smoothed window the trend is measured from. An earlier baseline means a longer record stands behind the number.Full methodology →Survey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
Northern Pacific Rainforest-54%197037
Great Basin-7%1970110
Northern Rockies+11%1970152
Sierra Nevada+61%197038
Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau+95%1970175
Badlands and Prairies+545%19806
Shortgrass Prairie-82%19983
Coastal California-83%197138
Sierra Madre Occidental-4%197020
Chihuahuan Desert-43%19775

Mountain Chickadee Conservation Status

Our route-weighted index shows it up about 160% since 1970.

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14. Trend is a route-weighted relative-abundance index, not an absolute population.