BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 10 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Mountain Chickadee In Northern Rockies

All regionsNorthern RockiesForest birds

Mountain Chickadee in Northern Rockies has edged up: up 19% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+19%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
150Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Mountain Chickadee in Northern Rockies. See the full index history below.

Mountain Chickadee In Northern Rockies Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Mountain Chickadee in Northern Rockies is projected to rise about 16% by 2029 — from 3.6 in 2024 to a central estimate of 4.2 (95% range 2.1–6.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±28.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+16%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
4.2Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
2.1–6.395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±28.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Mountain Chickadee in Northern Rockies is projected to rise about 16% by 2029 — from 3.6 in 2024 to a central estimate of 4.2 (95% range 2.1–6.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±28.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20254.12.16.2
20264.22.16.2
20274.22.16.2
20284.22.16.3
20294.22.16.3

Routes In Northern Rockies

Routes recording Mountain Chickadee in Northern Rockies.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
DonnellyOREGON392006
DesolationOREGON322007
YellowstoneWYOMING312022
Colter BayWYOMING281999
OchocoOREGON241982
Colter Bay 2WYOMING242024
West ThumbWYOMING221982
BarnhouseOREGON212024
SilviesOREGON202024
CobaltIDAHO192024
Mount VernonOREGON192024
Omak CreekWASHINGTON192024
Crazy WomanWYOMING182024
Hayden ValWYOMING181986
Silver CreekOREGON172024
Hash RockOREGON172024
Howard Mdws.OREGON162024
Hells CanyonOREGON162022
Eagle CreekOREGON152022
Donelly 2OREGON152024
Greenoagh 2MONTANA142011
Wise RiverMONTANA132024
Hebgen LakeMONTANA132024
CurlewWASHINGTON132013
Hunter PeakWYOMING132024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.