BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 10 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Mountain Chickadee In Northern Rockies

All regionsNorthern RockiesForest birds

Mountain Chickadee in Northern Rockies has edged up: up 11% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+11%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
152Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Mountain Chickadee in Northern Rockies. See the full index history below.

Mountain Chickadee In Northern Rockies Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Mountain Chickadee in Northern Rockies is projected to rise about 14% by 2030 — from 3.7 in 2025 to a central estimate of 4.2 (95% range 2.1–6.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±18.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+14%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
4.2Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
2.1–6.295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±18.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Mountain Chickadee in Northern Rockies is projected to rise about 14% by 2030 — from 3.7 in 2025 to a central estimate of 4.2 (95% range 2.1–6.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±18.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20264.12.16.2
20274.12.16.2
20284.22.16.2
20294.22.16.2
20304.22.16.2

Routes In Northern Rockies

Routes recording Mountain Chickadee in Northern Rockies.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
WallowaOREGON562025
DonnellyOREGON392006
Howard Mdws.OREGON322025
OchocoOREGON282025
Colter BayWYOMING281999
OchocoOREGON241982
Silver CreekOREGON232025
BarnhouseOREGON232025
West ThumbWYOMING221982
SilviesOREGON202024
Mount VernonOREGON192024
Omak CreekWASHINGTON192024
YellowstoneWYOMING192025
Crazy WomanWYOMING182024
Hayden ValWYOMING181986
Bald MtnWYOMING172025
MonumentOREGON162025
Hash RockOREGON152025
Greenoagh 2MONTANA142011
Soda LakeWYOMING142025
Colter Bay 2WYOMING142025
Summit PrOREGON132025
TroyOREGON132025
Eagle CreekOREGON132025
Donelly 2OREGON132025

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.