BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 16 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Mountain Chickadee In Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau

All regionsSouthern Rockies / Colorado PlateauForest birds

Mountain Chickadee in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau has surged: up 96% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+96%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
173Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Mountain Chickadee has surged in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau: up 96% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Mountain Chickadee In Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Mountain Chickadee in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 4.5 (95% range 2.8–6.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±37.4%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+9%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
4.5Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
2.8–6.295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±37.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Mountain Chickadee in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 4.5 (95% range 2.8–6.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±37.4%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20254.42.76.0
20264.42.76.1
20274.42.86.1
20284.52.86.2
20294.52.86.2

Routes In Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau

Routes recording Mountain Chickadee in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Grizzly RdgeUTAH582024
Navajo LakeUTAH482024
Pinos CreekCOLORADO431990
Buffalo ParkCOLORADO422023
SawmillARIZONA362014
Deadman Rd.COLORADO342024
Dixie NfUTAH272024
Gold HillCOLORADO222012
La SalUTAH202000
Bryce CanyonUTAH192024
Mount EvansCOLORADO172024
TsaileARIZONA162023
Mt. Taylor 2NEW-MEXICO162024
HiteUTAH161992
Lost Cr. ResUTAH162018
Bluewater LakeNEW-MEXICO152021
Wasatch NfUTAH152024
Ryan ParkWYOMING142023
Cochetopa PassCOLORADO132024
Trail Ridge RoadCOLORADO132014
Lost LakeCOLORADO122024
Red CliffCOLORADO122024
Angel FireNEW-MEXICO122002
Dunckley PasCOLORADO112024
Mt. TaylorNEW-MEXICO112012

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.