BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 16 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Mountain Chickadee In Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau

All regionsSouthern Rockies / Colorado PlateauForest birds

Mountain Chickadee in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau has surged: up 95% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+95%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
175Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Mountain Chickadee has surged in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau: up 95% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Mountain Chickadee In Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Mountain Chickadee in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau is projected to rise about 12% by 2030 — from 4.1 in 2025 to a central estimate of 4.6 (95% range 2.9–6.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±29.9%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+12%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
4.6Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
2.9–6.295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±29.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Mountain Chickadee in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau is projected to rise about 12% by 2030 — from 4.1 in 2025 to a central estimate of 4.6 (95% range 2.9–6.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±29.9%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20264.42.76.0
20274.42.76.1
20284.52.86.1
20294.52.86.2
20304.62.96.2

Routes In Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau

Routes recording Mountain Chickadee in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Ryan ParkWYOMING562025
Grizzly RdgeUTAH482025
Pinos CreekCOLORADO431990
SawmillARIZONA362014
Navajo LakeUTAH302025
Gold HillCOLORADO222012
Dixie NfUTAH212025
La SalUTAH202000
TarryallCOLORADO182025
Deadman Rd.COLORADO172025
Mount EvansCOLORADO172024
TsaileARIZONA162023
Mt. Taylor 2NEW-MEXICO162024
HiteUTAH161992
Lost Cr. ResUTAH162018
Bluewater LakeNEW-MEXICO152021
Wasatch NfUTAH152024
Gold Hill 2COLORADO142025
Bryce CanyonUTAH142025
Dry ParkARIZONA132025
Trail Ridge RoadCOLORADO132014
FayetteUTAH132025
Angel FireNEW-MEXICO122002
Mt. TaylorNEW-MEXICO112012
Heber Mtn.UTAH112025

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.