BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 9 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Mountain Chickadee In Great Basin

All regionsGreat BasinForest birds

Mountain Chickadee in Great Basin has edged down: down 17% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-17%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
110Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Mountain Chickadee in Great Basin. See the full index history below.

Mountain Chickadee In Great Basin Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Mountain Chickadee in Great Basin is projected to rise about 21% by 2029 — from 2.9 in 2024 to a central estimate of 3.6 (95% range 1.7–5.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±39%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+21%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
3.6Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.7–5.495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±39%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Mountain Chickadee in Great Basin is projected to rise about 21% by 2029 — from 2.9 in 2024 to a central estimate of 3.6 (95% range 1.7–5.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±39%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20253.51.75.4
20263.51.75.4
20273.61.75.4
20283.61.75.4
20293.61.75.4

Routes In Great Basin

Routes recording Mountain Chickadee in Great Basin.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
PauninaOREGON622024
HackamoreCALIFORNIA602010
Medicine Mtn.CALIFORNIA482021
Bald Mtn.OREGON482024
Barnes ValOREGON451987
SistersOREGON452024
LakeviewOREGON382024
Crowder FlatCALIFORNIA312019
ChinchaloOREGON312024
MacdoelCALIFORNIA292019
BartleCALIFORNIA272021
TionestaCALIFORNIA262021
Davis LakeOREGON262024
Lapham Res.OREGON222024
BlyOREGON192001
Bly 2OREGON192024
PaisleyOREGON182024
Picture FlatOREGON142024
DeschutesOREGON132024
MazamaWASHINGTON112022
Wizard FallsOREGON102024
IngallsCALIFORNIA92001
Modoc PointOREGON82018
NubieberCALIFORNIA72018
JarbidgeNEVADA72015

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.