BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 9 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Mountain Chickadee In Great Basin

All regionsGreat BasinForest birds

Mountain Chickadee in Great Basin has held roughly steady: down 7% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-7%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
110Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Mountain Chickadee in Great Basin. See the full index history below.

Mountain Chickadee In Great Basin Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Mountain Chickadee in Great Basin is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 3.6 (95% range 1.8–5.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±33%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-1%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
3.6Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.8–5.495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±33%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Mountain Chickadee in Great Basin is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 3.6 (95% range 1.8–5.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±33%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20263.61.75.4
20273.61.75.4
20283.61.85.4
20293.61.85.4
20303.61.85.4

Routes In Great Basin

Routes recording Mountain Chickadee in Great Basin.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Bald Mtn.OREGON912025
HackamoreCALIFORNIA602010
Medicine Mtn.CALIFORNIA482021
Barnes ValOREGON451987
PauninaOREGON422025
LakeviewOREGON392025
SistersOREGON352025
Lapham Res.OREGON342025
Crowder FlatCALIFORNIA312019
Davis LakeOREGON312025
MacdoelCALIFORNIA292019
BartleCALIFORNIA272021
TionestaCALIFORNIA262021
Bly 2OREGON262025
DeschutesOREGON212025
PaisleyOREGON202025
BlyOREGON192001
ChinchaloOREGON192025
Picture FlatOREGON152025
Lake ChelanWASHINGTON142025
Wizard FallsOREGON122025
MazamaWASHINGTON112022
WillisNEVADA92025
Blewett PassWASHINGTON92025
Modoc PointOREGON82018

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.